19 December 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback’s fate lies upon dot-plot.
Greenback was traded lower against its rivals on Tuesday while Federal Reserve policy meeting gets underway. The dollar index was down by 0.12% to 96.44 during early Asian trading session. The dollar suffered from bearish selloffs since last Monday amid growing expectation towards Feds to adopt a more dovish outlook upon their future monetary policy and US economic outlook. Factors which supports such speculation includes recent sluggishness in economic releases as well as unresolved trade tensions between US and China. While the central bank is highly expected to raise their interest rates tonight, analysts forecast for a lower frequency of rate hikes next year with only two times as compared to previous guidance of three times. In addition, greenback failed to make any substantial recovery on yesterday after US President Donald Trump directed his criticism towards the Federal Reserve. Trump criticized the central bank in a tweet for its two-days meeting, calling officials to cease raising interest rates as economic data is “meaningless”. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD rose 0.09% to 1.2652 as of writing. Sterling found some bullish support after British government announced to ramp up preparations for a no-deal Brexit, a situation whereby UK may leave European Union without a trade agreement.
In the commodities section, crude oil price plunged 4.52% to $46.72 per barrel, its lowest level in 15 months. Crude oil prices extended its bearish journey as holiday season approaches with lesser traders taking long position from the lower price levels. On the other hand, gold price ticks up 0.01% to $1,249.72 a troy ounce as investor’s anticipates Fed’s interest rate decision slated for release later tonight.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
03:00 (20th) USD FOMC Economic Projections
03:00 USD FOMC Statement
03:30 USD FOMC Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Nov) | 0.3% | -0.1% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Nov) | 2.4% | 2.3% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Nov) | 0.4% | – | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Nov) | 5.22M | 5.20M | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – EIA Crude Oil Inventories | -1.208M | -2.437M | – |
| 03:00
(20th) |
USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.25% | 2.50% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior closure below 96.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to extend further down, towards the direction at 96.25.
Resistance level: 96.45, 96.60
Support level: 96.25, 95.95
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.2700.
Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2770
Support level: 1.2575, 1.2500
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.1410.
Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1450
Support level: 1.1360, 1.1310
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 112.35.
Resistance level: 112.60, 112.95
Support level: 112.35, 112.10
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7170. MACD which illustrate positive divergence signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards 0.7220.
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7265
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7105
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6840. MACD which continues to illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 0.6890.
Resistance level: 0.6890, 0.6940
Support level: 0.6840, 0.6780
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from previous high level. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3530, 1.3615
Support level: 1.3430, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 0.9930. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term and retest near 0.9905.
Resistance level: 0.9930, 0.9955
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9870
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from its lowest level in 15 months. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 47.50, 49.50
Support level: 45.40, 42.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1237.25. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1253.00, 1263.20
Support level: 1242.10, 1237.25