20 March 2018 Daily Analysis
A possible smooth Brexit deal pressures on dollar.
Dollar index slipped by 0.38% to 89.38 as of writing following agreements made between the United Kingdom and the European Union regarding the Brexit transition deal. Despite investors’ optimistic sentiment towards the Federal Reserve to increase their interest rate by a quarter point during its FOMC meeting this week, Greenback has failed to hold on its ground after the UK and the EU published a draft withdrawal bill that revealed a complete agreement regarding financial settlement and citizens’ rights for both parties. The release of the news has drawn GBP/USD to surge by 0.65% to $1.4032 as it has raised market optimism over a smoother exit for the UK from EU. On the contrary, EUR/USD rose 0.35% to $1.2340 after a few European Central Bank (ECB) members who were previously in their dovish stands have warmed to the idea of monetary policy tightening.
In the commodities market, crude oil price remained traded below the key level 62.50, currently traded at $62.32 as rising U.S. output and a ramp up in Saudi Arabia’s diesel and gasoline exports added to fears over crude oversupply. Likewise, gold price was traded steadily at $1316.39 a troy ounce while investors await release of Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
08:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 08:30 | AUD – House Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) | -0.2% | 0.1% | 1.0% |
| 15:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.5% | 0.1% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 3.0% | 2.8% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Mar) | 17.8 | 13.1 | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – ZEW Economic Sentiment | 29.3 | 28.1 | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -0.5% | 0.1% | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 1.156M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 1.4020 and the pair is currently testing to stand on its ground on the 50.0 Fibonacci level. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains if candlestick closes above the said level.
Resistance level: 1.4100, 1.4200
Support level: 1.4020, 1.3950
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 1.2300. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains if breakout at the resistance by 200-MA line is successful.
Resistance level: 1.2350, 1.2400
Support level: 1.2300, 1.2250
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded in consolidation between resistance level at 106.30 and support level at 105.80. A lack of obvious signal from both candlestick pattern and MACD histogram would suggest to wait for confirmation breakout to grasp the next movement of the pair in nearer term.
Resistance level: 106.30, 107.10
Support level: 105.80, 105.40
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following its failure to break support level at 62.00. However, MACD signal line that shows a death-cross would suggest the commodity price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower before continuing its bullish bias.
Resistance level: 62.50, 62.90
Support level: 62.00, 61.40
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower after breaking support level at 1317.15. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to undergo short-term losses towards the next support level at 1314.15.
Resistance level: 1317.15, 1321.55
Support level: 1314.15, 1310.85