20 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar revives as US-China trade talk fumbled.
Greenback extended its recovery against other major currencies as market participants poured into the dollar market following renewed tension in US-China trade talk. However, any substantial gains on the greenback remains limited as Federal Reserve is expected to deliver their monetary policy statement later tonight. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.10% to 95.87 against six major peers. According to people that are familiar with the current US-China trade talks, the American counterpart is concerned that China might push back against American demands even so President Donald Trump sounded optimistic in reaching a deal. Chinse officials stated that while they agreed to some changes with regards to intellectual property policies, they have yet received any assurance from Trump administration that tariffs upon China goods will be lifted. Likewise, Beijing has also stepped back from initial promises over data protection of pharmaceuticals while offering little detail on plans to improve patent linkages. As such, investors will be remained fixated upon US-China trade talk as Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin which is expected to travel to China next week for another round of trade talks. On the other hand, pair of AUD/USD tumbled down 0.20% to 0.7073. Australian dollar received higher selling pressure after China Securities Journal reported that People’s Bank of China may cut the amount of cash that banks have to hold in order to counter weak economic growth in the region.
As for commodities market, crude oil price plunged 0.27% to $58.84 per barrel. Oil prices took a hit after US-China trade talks fumbles which may evoke further recessive risks in economic progression if left unresolved. On the other hand, gold prices fell 0.13% to $1,304.83 a troy ounce as US dollar recovers from its prior low levels.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 (21st) USD FOMC Economic Projections
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
02:00 USD FOMC Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 1.8% | 1.8% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -3.862M | 0.309M | – |
| 02:00 (21th) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.50% | 2.50% | – |
| 05:45 | NZD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.3% | 0.6% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level at 95.70. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level at 96.10.
Resistance level: 96.10, 96.40
Support level: 95.70, 95.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower in the sideway channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower toward the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.3295, 1.3400
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3145
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1355. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1335.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1335, 1.1315
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 111.40. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 112.00.
Resistance level: 112.00, 112.35
Support level: 111.40, 111.10
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.7070. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6840. MACD which display bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend losses towards the support level 0.6805.
Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6900
Support level: 0.6840, 0.6805
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level at 1.3345.
Resistance level: 1.3345, 1.3405
Support level: 1.3290, 1.3235
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level at 0.9985. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to continue its rebound toward the resistance level at 1.0020.
Resistance level: 1.0020, 1.0045
Support level: 0.9985, 0.9960
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 59.70. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 57.65.
Resistance level: 59.70, 61.25
Support level: 57.65, 55.85
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1310.35. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 1298.90.
Resistance level: 1310.35, 1321.10
Support level: 1298.90, 1292.05