20 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar under pressure ahead of FOMC Meeting Minutes.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currencies recovered by 0.08% to 95.88 while remained pressured as investors expect a slight dovish signal from FOMC Meeting Minutes later today. Recent statement from Fed included their patience approach towards the interest rate following poor economic conditions shown by US data last week. As interest rate are expected to be kept unchanged, investors await further confirmation regarding Fed’s dot plot which signaled two rate hikes for year 2019. However, with a slowdown in the economy, economists expect the rate hikes on the dot plot to be only once this year while market wait for Fed’s economic prospect for clearer signal. In other news, pair of EUR/USD fell by 0.04% to 1.1345 as of writing despite a higher than expected reading in German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Recent economic outlook for the Eurozone remained dovish while EU lawmakers are struggling with Brexit issues. Investors will now place their focus on today release of German PPI data to further gauge the market sentiment for euro.
For the commodities market, crude oil price fell by 0.34% to $59.05 per barrel amid concerns of recent trade talks development. Recent reports stated that Beijing might walk away from talks due to lack of trust towards the US regarding the lifting of tariffs imposed on their goods. Investors fear that the impasse in trade talks will affect the demand for crude oil in the long run. Likewise, gold price decreased by 0.17% to $1304.10 per troy ounce following stronger dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 (21st) USD FOMC Economic Projections
02:00 USD FOMC Statement
02:00 USD FOMC Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Feb) | 0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 1.8% | 1.8% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -3.862M | 0.309M | – |
| 02:00 (21th) | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 2.50% | 2.50% | – |
| 05:45 | NZD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 0.3% | 0.6% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 95.65. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 96.25
Resistance level: 96.25, 96.80
Support level: 95.65, 95.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded flat while currently testing the support level 1.3250. However, MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3475
Support level: 1.3250, 1.3180
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1355. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1295.
Resistance level: 1.1355, 1.1395
Support level: 1.1295, 1.1260
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 111.10. MACD which display bullish momentum signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 111.75.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.10
Support level: 111.10, 110.35
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.7085. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7050
Resistance level: 0.7085, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7050, 0.7005
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD remains traded in a sideway channel following recent retracement from the resistance level 0.6875. However, MACD which display bearish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.6815.
Resistance level: 0.6875, 0.6905
Support level: 0.6815, 0.6770
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3295. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3350.
Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3460
Support level: 1.3295, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.0000. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction back above the previous level 1.0000.
Resistance level: 1.0000, 1.0025
Support level: 0.9965, 0.9915
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 59.35. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 57.50.
Resistance level: 59.35, 61.25
Support level: 57.50, 55.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1308.10. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 1299.15.
Resistance level: 1308.10, 1315.80
Support level: 1299.15, 1289.35