20 June 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback falls as rate cut approaches.
Greenback tumbled to two-weeks low against other major currencies as Federal Reserve continues to adopt dovish-tilted stance. As widely expected, Fed concluded its two-day meeting by keeping their interest rate unchanged within the range of 2.25% – 2.50%. According to their statement, Fed noted that uncertainties continues to increase when referring to US economic outlook. In addition, they also reiterate to “act as appropriate” in order to sustain economic expansion and strong labor market while keeping inflation near their target. However, Fed deleted their statement that they would be “patient” with regards to future policy adjustments. Such omission has hiked up market speculation for a rate cut as soon as July. During the press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that there is not much of support to cut rates as of now due to lack of signal with regards to maximum employment capacity. His statement has eased some losses upon the greenback. Nevertheless, Powell indicated that a depreciation in inflation would boost the factor for rate cuts in the future while ongoing trade news will remain as the important driver of sentiment for the central bank. For the time being, market participants will continue to monitor future economic releases from the United States to gauge future rate hike timing and probability. As of writing, the dollar index recorded a loss of 0.44% to 96.68.
As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.20% to $54.27 per barrel. Oil futures remains in demand after Energy Information Administration recorded a draw in last week’s oil inventories by -3.11 million barrels, slightly higher than forecast of -1.08 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price rose more by 0.05% to $1,359.71 a troy ounce due to weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
19:00 GBP BoE MPC Meeting Minutes
04:00 (21st) GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| Tentative | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 16:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | 0.0% | -0.5% | – |
| 19:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Jun) | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 222K | 220K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Jun) | 16.6 | 10.6 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philly Fed Employment (Jun) | 18.2 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing at the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to advance further down after a successful breakout occur.
Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50
Support level: 96.35, 95.75
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.2745.
Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2790
Support level: 1.2630, 1.2515
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.1245.
Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1275
Support level: 1.1210, 1.1150
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout from the target of 108.20. MACD which continues to illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 107.95.
Resistance level: 108.20, 108.50
Support level: 107.95, 107.70
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior close above 0.6880. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 0.6900.
Resistance level: 0.6900, 0.6930
Support level: 0.6880, 0.6850
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 0.6555. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6555.
Resistance level: 0.6555, 0.6600
Support level: 0.6485, 0.6450
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower following prior close below 1.3280. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3255.
Resistance level: 1.3280, 1.3315
Support level: 1.3255, 1.3220
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retrace near 0.9945. MACD which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.9915.
Resistance level: 0.9945, 0.9975
Support level: 0.9915, 0.9890
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior closure above 54.45. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to advance further up, towards the direction of 57.30.
Resistance level: 57.30, 60.85
Support level: 54.45, 53.00
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1340.00. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to advance further up, towards the direction of 1374.10.
Resistance level: 1374.10, 1390.00
Support level: 1340.00, 1308.00