20 July 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar deviates amid Trump’s criticism.
US dollar pared its gains during North American trading hours after US President Donald Trump commented that he is not “happy” about Federal Reserve tightening their monetary policy. The dollar index tumbled down 0.43% to 94.92 against a basket of six major peers. During an interview with the CNBC on Thursday, Trump expressed that the is not happy about interest rate increases, claiming that “higher rates may put us (United States) at a disadvantage”. However, Trump added that he would let the “Fed to do what they feel best”. Pessimistic comments from Trump scaled back investors expectation for a faster pace of rate hike following hawkish call from Fed Chair Jerome Powell that the best option for the central bank is to gradually raising interest rates. Overall, downside on the dollar remains limited following optimistic economic report from yesterday. According to US Department of Labor, Initial Jobless Claims fell 8,000 to a total of 207,000 for last week, confounding economist forecast for a reading of 220,000. Likewise, Philadelphia Fed reported that its manufacturing index rose to 25.7 for the month of July, exceeding forecast of an increase to 21.6.
As for commodities, crude oil price pared some losses by 0.07% to $69.47 per barrel following report which shows that Saudi Arabia exports may fall short in August, renewing expectations for a global shortage in crude supplies. On the other hand, gold price ticked up 0.01% to $1,222.97 a troy ounce while investors continue to monitor US major economic release to gauge future rate hike stance.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative CrudeOIL OPEC Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:30 | JPY – National Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) | 0.7% | 0.8% | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German PPI (MoM) (Jun) | 0.5% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Jun) | -0.1% | – | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (May) | -0.1% | 0.7% | – |
| 01:00 | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 863 | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the top level. Although MACD and Stochastic Oscillator illustrate bullish signal, a break above is required to attain further verification.
Resistance level: 1.3070, 1.3130
Support level: 1.3000, 1.2900
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remains traded within a descending wedge following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD histogram which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.1680, 1.1720
Support level: 1.1645, 1.1590
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout from the bottom level of ascending channel. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 112.55, 112.80
Support level: 112.25, 111.85
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price extended gains following prior rebound from the strong support at 66.55. MACD which illustrate persistent upward signal suggests the commodity price to advance further up after breaking the resistance near 68.40.
Resistance level: 68.40, 69.30
Support level: 67.90, 66.55
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the commodity price to extend its losses after closing below 1222.00.
Resistance level: 1226.50, 1233.70
Support level: 1222.00, 1216.00