20 December 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar ‘stunned’ amid mixed signal from Fed.
Greenback was traded flat after sharp rebound from one month low level amid Federal Reserve managed to raise 25 basis point before the end of this year. Prior to the interest rate decision, financial market was widely anticipating that Fed will pause hiking interest rate in short term due to rising uncertainty about global economic growth. Yet, the market were surprised by Fed decision where they retain their core of its plan to continue tightening their monetary policy although there are some amendment in the statement and lowered the growth and inflation forecast for year 2019. As of now, Federal Reserve ‘dot plot’ the number of interest rate hike to two times instead of three for next year. Dollar index dipped 0.03% to 96.45 during Asian trading session. On the other hand, pair of NZD/USD plunged 0.41% to 0.6740 amid New Zealand’s economic growth plunged to its lowest level in almost five years in the third quarter, dropping a hint of New Zealand Central Bank shall loosen their monetary policy in the future.
In the commodities market, crude oil price notched down by 0.15% to $47.30 per barrel, pressured by downbeat crude oil inventories data. Thus, market participant are still worry about the inventory oversupply issues and the outlook for the global economy. On the other hand, gold price surged 0.11% to $1,244.00 a troy ounce following dollar’s retracement from 96.50 high level.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) | -0.5% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 206K | 216K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) | 12.9 | 15.6 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Philly Fed Employment (Dec) | 16.3 | – | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Oct) | -0.5% | 0.2% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from resistance level at 96.50. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggests the index to extend its loss toward the support level at 96.30.
Resistance level: 96.50, 96.65
Support level: 96.30, 96.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2620. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.2620.
Resistance level: 1.2675, 1.2730
Support level: 1.2620, 1.2535
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1360. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1395.
Resistance level: 1.1395, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1360, 1.1340
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the top levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 112.25.
Resistance level: 112.65, 113.20
Support level: 112.25, 112.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level at 0.7115. MACD which forms a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.7080.
Resistance level: 0.7115, 0.7155
Support level: 0.7080, 0.7060
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6755. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the support level at 0.6710.
Resistance level: 0.6750, 0.6790
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6630
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1.3495. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3545.
Resistance level: 1.3545, 1.3600
Support level: 1.3495, 1.3445
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9920. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9955.
Resistance level: 0.9955, 1.0005
Support level: 0.9920, 0.9865
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout from the previous support level at 47.40. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 46.20.
Resistance level: 47.40, 48.40
Support level: 46.20, 45.20
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1241.35. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1246.15.
Resistance level: 1246.15, 1251.05
Support level: 1241.35, 1234.25