20 December 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback rallies as Fed disobeys Trump.
US dollar stages a sharp rebound from one-month low amid mixed signals from US Federal Reserve conclusion of their two-day monetary policy meeting. As of Asian session, the dollar index was quoted up 0.41%, last seen around 96.40. As widely expected, the Fed raised their interest rates for the fourth time this year, hiking 25 basis points from 2.25% to 2.50%. However, Fed officials were seemingly cautious in their tone and decision while dialing back their projection for future rate hikes and economic growth in 2019. The Fed projects at least two rate hikes for the year 2019, signaling that they may soon pause their monetary policy tightening in the near future. Speaking in a press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the policy is not being ran on a preset course. He reiterates significant amount of uncertainty with regards to forward guidance and target rate as global economy shows signs of a slowdown. Yet, the Feds stood tall to their decision by defying criticism from US President Donald Trump which were speculated by some to halt the course for a monetary policy tightening. Against other major currencies, pair of GBP/USD was down 0.51% to 1.2625 while EUR/USD depreciates by 0.30% to 1.1385.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was down by 0.08% to $47.05 per barrel. Oil prices received some selling pressure after EIA reported a lesser-than-expected draw in crude inventories by -0.497 million barrels versus forecast of -2.437 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.09% to $1,253.38 a troy ounce following dollar’s rebound from a lower level.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) | -0.5% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 206K | 216K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec) | 12.9 | 15.6 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Philly Fed Employment (Dec) | 16.3 | – | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Oct) | -0.5% | 0.2% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from previous low level. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above 96.45.
Resistance level: 96.45, 96.60
Support level: 96.25, 95.95
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 1.2575.
Resistance level: 1.2700, 1.2770
Support level: 1.2575, 1.2500
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which continues to illustrate persistent bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1450
Support level: 1.1360, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term after breaking the target near 112.60.
Resistance level: 112.60, 112.95
Support level: 112.35, 112.10
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from the support level at 0.7170. MACD which forms a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target near 0.7105.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7220
Support level: 0.7105, 0.7060
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below 0.6780. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction at 0.6710.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remains traded within a rising wedge formation for the past few periods. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the top level of the wedge.
Resistance level: 1.3530, 1.3615
Support level: 1.3430, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which has formed a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the upper level of the triangle.
Resistance level: 0.9955, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9930, 0.9905
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from previous low level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 47.50, 49.50
Support level: 45.40, 43.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance near 1253.00. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests its prices to advance further down after closing below 1242.10.
Resistance level: 1253.00, 1263.20
Support level: 1242.10, 1237.25