16 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback revived as positive economic data.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies rose amid release of a batch of upbeat economic data from US region tempered the market concern over US economy recession risk. According to the Census Bureau, US Core Retail Sales data came in at 1.0%, beating the economist forecast of 0.4% only while it indicating that the US economy is still remain favorable as consumer spending had strengthen. Besides, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index also further support the dollar index against other currencies where it showed a reading of 16.8 versus economist forecast of 10.0. This robust data indicates that business conditions in US has improved and seemingly local companies did not affected much by the heightening trade tensions between US and China. Besides, series of ‘healthy’ economic data throughout this entire week so far has lowered down the investor expectation regarding to the possibility of 0.25% rate cut in September from 75.4% to 73.1%. During early Asian trading session, dollar index ticked up 0.01% to 97.95. On the other hand, the pair of EUR/USD quoted up 0.02% to 1.1105 after plunging for more than 600 basis point following dovish statement from ECB’s committee member Olli Rehn. According to an interview conducted by Wall Street Journal, ECB will announced a package of stimulus measures at its next policy meeting in September that should exceed the expectation of investors, revealed by ECB’s member. Thus, a further rate cut and more substantial bond purchases can be expected to implement by ECB in order to support the Eurozone economy slowing.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.20% to $54.80 per barrel despite China reported disappointing data for July. Yesterday China released surprise drop in industrial output growth data to a more than 17 year low due to escalation of trade war. On the other hand, gold price ticked up by 0.18% to $1525.95 a troy ounce amid market sentiment remain negative toward riskier asset.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:00 CrudeOIL OPEC Monthly Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Jul) | 1.232M | 1.270M | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Aug) | 98.4 | 97.2 | – |
| 1:00
(17th) |
USD – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 764 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 98.00. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum suggest index to extend its gains after successfully breakout above the resistance level at 98.00.
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.40
Support level: 97.50, 97.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2155. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.2155.
Resistance level: 1.2155, 1.2220
Support level: 1.2090, 1.1980
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1115. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1070.
Resistance level: 1.1115, 1.1155
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1030
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 106.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level at 106.00.
Resistance level: 106.70, 107.25
Support level: 106.00, 105.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of downward channel. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6750.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6640. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6395.
Resistance level: 0.6440, 0.6465
Support level: 0.6395, 0.6330
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3310. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3385.
Resistance level: 1.3385, 1.3450
Support level: 1.3310, 1.3275
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9755. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9790.
Resistance level: 0.9790, 0.9840
Support level: 0.9755, 0.9705
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 54.65. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggest the commodity to be traded higher in short term toward the resistance level at 55.90.
Resistance level: 55.90, 56.80
Support level: 54.65, 53.10
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1507.10. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1532.05.
Resistance level: 1532.05, 1548.05
Support level: 1507.10, 1490.00