21 January 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Greenback ‘freezed’ amid ongoing government shutdown.
Dollar index traded flat against its six major peer currencies after hitting high level of 96.00 despite US government shutdown issue unsolved yet. According to Reuters, U.S. President Donald Trump proposed an immigration deal to Democrats on last Saturday in a will to end 29-day partial government shutdown while insisting on his demand for U.S Mexico wall funding. However, Democratic Party seem to be not affected by the pressure piled by Donald trump where they immediately dismissed the deal offer by him. On the other side, Democrats party insisted talks on border security will be continued only after the government is reopened, emphasized by Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer. As of writing, Dollar index inched down 0.05% to 95.85. On the other hand, the pair of AUD/USD rose 0.03% to 0.7165 although China GDP growth slows to weakest in 28 years, but the pair was supported by higher than expected Industrial Production Data for December. China GDP data came in at 6.4%, hitting the economists’ forecast while Industrial Production Data shown in a rate of 5.7%, out of economist expectation of 5.3% and eventually bolstered the Aussie Dollar as Australia is highly correlated to China economy’s performance.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.50% to $54.20 per barrel, highest level for 2019 after data showed refinery processing in China climbed to record high in 2019, despite China GDP data declined to weakest level. Besides, gold price rose 0.08% to $1282.30 amid demand for Greenback has weaken.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentatif GBP UK Prime Minister May Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German PPI | 0.1% | -0.2% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 96.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 95.60.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.30
Support level: 95.60, 95.20
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggset the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.2930.
Resistance level: 1.2930, 1.3015
Support level: 1.2815, 1.2700
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level 1.1350. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggset the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1400.
Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1440
Support level: 1.1350, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 108.90. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 109.25.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.40
Support level: 109.25, 108.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the bottom-level of the channel at 0.7170. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound from the bottom-level of the channel.
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7290
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7100
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 0.6715. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound from the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6850
Support level: 0.6715, 0.6625
USDCAD, H4 USDCAD remained traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level 1.3245. Due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout above or below the sideway channel is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3420
Support level: 1.3245, 1.3185
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9950. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace from the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9995
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9860
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level of 53.90. MACD which display persistent bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 55.00.
Resistance level: 55.00, 56.15
Support level: 53.90, 52.70
GOLD_H4: Gold was traded lower while currently near the support level 1280.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest gold to undergo short-term technical correction and rebound from the support level.
Resistance level: 1288.00, 1295.00
Support level: 1280.00, 1272.00
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: January 21 – 25
| Monday, January 21 |
Data CNY– GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
Events GBP – UK Prime Minister May Speaks
|
| Tuesday, January 22 | Data
GBP – Average Earnings Index +Bonus (Nov) GBP – Claimant Count Change (Dec) EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Jan) USD – Existing Home Sales (Dec)
Events N/A
|
| Wednesday, January 23 |
Data NZD – CPI (QoQ) (Q4) JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Jan) CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov) USD – Crude Oil Inventories
Events JPY – BoJ Monetary Policy Statement JPY – BoJ Outlook Report JPY – BoJ Press Conference
|
| Thursday, January 24 |
Data CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock AUD – Employment Change (Dec) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision USD – Initial Jobless Claims USD – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) USD – Markit Composite PMI (Jan) USD – Services PMI (Jan)
Events EUR – ECB Press Conference
|
|
Friday, January 25
|
Data CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) USD – New Home Sales CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count
Events N/A
|