21 January 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar supported by Brexit woes and trade talk optimism.
Dollar index climbed against a basket of six major currencies pairs last Friday amid Sino-US trade talk optimism where recent reports from Chinese officials stated that China will offer to boost imports of US goods up to a sum of $1 trillion to balance its trade surplus with the US. The news boosted the sentiment for the dollar market as investors hope that the trade war would be resolved sooner than expected. Investors will now eye on the outcome of another round of trade talks as China Vice Premier Liu He travel to Washington at the end of the month. Further supported the dollar was poor sentimen from the pound market regarding Brexit uncertainties while investors awaits for an alternative plan from UK Prime Minister Theresa May after failing to get approval for her Brexit deal. May is expected to deliver a speech later today which include the future plans for Brexit as well as the possibilities for a second Brexit referendum. As of writing, dollar index inched higher by 0.02% to 95.90 while pair of GBP/USD fell by 0.09% to 1.2860.
In the commodities market, crude oil price increased by 0.45% to $54.19 per barrel amid trade talk optimism and better than expected data. US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count data came in at 852 compared to its forecasted reading of 873. The decrease in oil rig activity in the US will lead to a lower production and inventory level which boosted the sentiment for the oil market. Besides, gold price fell by 0.08% to $1281.70 a troy ounce amid stronger dollar and lower demand for safe-haven assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentatif GBP UK Prime Minister May Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German PPI | 0.1% | -0.2% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 96.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to extend its retracement towards the support level 95.60.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.30
Support level: 95.60, 95.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout from previous support level 1.2930. MACD which display ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2815.
Resistance level: 1.2930, 1.3015
Support level: 1.2815, 1.2700
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level 1.1350. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggset the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1400.
Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1440
Support level: 1.1350, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 108.90. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 109.25.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.40
Support level: 109.25, 108.55
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing the bottom-level of the channel at 0.7170. MACD which display bearish bias momentum suggset the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the bottom-level of the sideway channel.
Resistance level: 0.7220, 0.7290
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7100
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 0.6715. MACD which display persistent bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6850
Support level: 0.6715, 0.6625
USDCAD, H4 USDCAD remained traded in a sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level 1.3245. Due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout above or below the sideway channel is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3420
Support level: 1.3245, 1.3185
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.9950. MACD which illustrate diminishied bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and retrace from the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9995
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9860
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level of 53.90. MACD which display persistent bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 55.00.
Resistance level: 55.00, 56.15
Support level: 53.90, 52.70
GOLD_H4: Gold was traded lower while currently near the support level 1280.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest gold to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1288.00, 1295.00
Support level: 1280.00, 1272.00