21 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar mixed as trade talk deadline approaches.
US dollar was traded mixed during mid-Asian trading session while market participants continues to monitor ongoing trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. According to sources, both US and China have started to outline their commitments with regards to trade dispute, setting in the most significant progress which may put the seven-month trade war to an end soon. Negotiators are currently drawing up six memorandums of understanding (MoU) over structural issues which includes non-tariff barriers to trade and intellectual property rights. However, one source cautioned that the talks may still end up in failure as they nearing March 1st deadline. Nonetheless, signage of MoU between both countries is a significant step forward in holding up to specific commitments on key issues. On the other hand, pound sterling struggles to initiate any significant recovery following heightened political and Brexit risk in the region. According to reports, three Conservative Party MPs has resigned and will join the Independent group. Such news has further dialed down optimism towards the passage of PM Theresa May’s Brexit agreement which is currently under re-negotiation with the European Union. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.07% to 96.30 while pair of GBP/USD depreciates by 0.03% to 1.3045.
In the commodities market, crude oil price appreciates by 0.52% to $57.35 per barrel. Market sentiment towards the commodity remains positive over the backdrop of OPEC-led supply cuts and US sanction against Venezuela and Iran. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.10% to $1,339.69 a troy ounce. Gold price hovers near multi-months high despite dollar’s rebound due to diminished expectations towards Federal Reserve with regards to interest rate hike for 2019.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
01:35 (22nd) CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI | 49.7 | 50.0 | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Markit Composite PMI (Feb) | 51.0 | 51.1 | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec) | -0.4% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 239K | 220K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) | 17.0 | 15.6 | – |
| 22:45 | USD – Markit Composite PMI (Feb) | 54.4 | 55.1 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Jan) | 4.99M | 5.01M | – |
| 00:00 (22nd) | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 3.633M | 3.080M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 96.40. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the index to extend its losses towards the support level at 96.10.
Resistance level: 96.40, 97.00
Support level: 96.10, 95.75
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3070. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.2975.
Resistance level: 1.3070, 1.3155
Support level: 1.2975, 1.2875
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1.1350. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction toward the support level at 1.1300.
Resistance level: 1.1350, 1.1390
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1260
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was lower following prior retracement near the sideway top level at 110.90. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a retracement from or breakout above the resistance level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 110.90, 111.05
Support level: 110.60, 110.40
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7145. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.7200.
Resistance level: 0.7200, 0.7290
Support level: 0.7145, 0.7060
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6845. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 0.6845.
Resistance level: 0.6885, 0.6935
Support level: 0.6845, 0.6815
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from its low level. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level at 1.3195.
Resistance level: 1.3195, 1.3265
Support level: 1.3145, 1.3090
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from support level 0.9990. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0090
Support level: 0.9990, 0.9945
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 56.55. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 57.75.
Resistance level: 57.75, 59.25
Support level: 56.55, 55.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1344.75. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1337.20.
Resistance level: 1344.75, 1355.40
Support level: 1337.20, 1323.15