21 March 2018 Daily Analysis
FOMC on-eyed; Euro plunged amid fears over trade war.
Dollar index rose against a trade-weighted basket of major currencies by 0.47% to 89.86 as of writing following a highly optimistic market sentiment towards the U.S. Federal Reserve to have their first rate hike of the year during its FOMC meeting. Market participants will also have their eyes on the release of the Summary of Economic Projection to gain further indication on inflation, unemployment and economic growth forecast in the region. According to the Fed’s dot plot in December 2017, the median forecast for rate hike was only three times. As recent statement among the Fed members including the newly appointed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has turned hawkish, the prospect for rate hike has increased to four times. On the other hand, EUR/USD was down 0.49% to $1.2254 after a report showing deteriorating German economic sentiment amid fears over a possible trade war following implementation of Trump’s tariff plan.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 2.2% to its three-week highs, currently traded at $63.75 per barrel following U.S. sanctions against the Iran which could lead to plausible supply disruptions. Otherwise, gold price was traded steadily around $1311.50 a troy ounce while investors are looking forward to the release of FOMC statement.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day JPY Vernal Equinox
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
02:00 (Thu) USD FOMC Economic Projection
02:00 (Thu) USD FOMC Statement
02:30 (Thu) USD FOMC Press Conference
04:00 (Thu) NZD RBNZ Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:30 | GBP – Average Earnings Index + Bonus (Jan) | 2.5% | 2.6% | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Claimant Count Change (Feb) | -7.2K | -3.1K | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – Unemployment Rate (Jan) | 4.4% | 4.4% | – |
| 19:00 | GBP – CBI Industrial Trends Orders (Mar) | 10 | 8 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Feb) | 5.38M | 5.41M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 5.022M | 3.672M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | -6.271M | – | – |
| 02:00 | USD – Fed Interest Rate Decision | 1.50% | 1.75% | – |
| 04:00 | NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision | 1.75% | 1.75% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 1.3980. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to trade higher towards the resistance level at 1.4020.
Resistance level: 1.4020, 1.4060
Support level: 1.3980, 1.3950
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher after breaking resistance level at 1.2240. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to extend higher before continuing its bearish bias.
Resistance level: 1.2290, 1.2300
Support level: 1.2240, 1.2210
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 106.40. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction to trade lower towards its previous high.
Resistance level: 106.60, 106.85
Support level: 106.40, 106.10
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 63.15. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its gains towards the next resistance level at 63.95.
Resistance level: 63.95, 64.50
Support level: 63.15, 62.20
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher prior breaking resistance level at 1309.70. MACD histogram that portrays diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher towards the resistance level at 1314.30.
Resistance level: 1314.30, 1317.40
Support level: 1309.70, 1303.80