21 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar dives following Fed rate reversal.
Dollar index plummets against a basket of six major currency pairs after Federal Reserve have left its rate unchanged and abolish the prospect of rate hike. In its recent statement, the Fed have surprised the market by abandoning all its plan to raise rates this year while at the same time benchmark Treasury yields dived to their lowest since early 2018. Besides that, the Fed also narrowed the amount of its maturing securities to roll off each month to $4 trillion from $4.5 trillion. The dovish shift which already highly expected by investors sending the greenback price for the biggest drop since the flash crash of early 2018 as market reacted swiftly and sway away from the greenback. At the time of writing, dollar extend its losses by 0.10% to 95.28. Meanwhile, AUD/USD skyrocketed 0.65% to 0.7161 as of writing following Australia jobless rate display improvement. According to the official data release, Australia’s unemployment rate have fell to a fresh seven-year low of 4.9%, exceeding market expectation with the previous reading of 5.0%. Besides that, part time employment also climbed to 11.9K from the previous reading of -24.3k, which signaling further a growing improvement in the jobs market.
For the commodities market, crude oil price extend its gains by 0.10% to $60.10, sending the price to a four-month high above $60 a barrel as positive news continue to encouraging the demand for the crude oil. In recent data, U.S Energy Information Administration have posted a large unexpected drop in crude oil inventories where stockpiles have fell 9.6 million barrels last week against economist expectations of an increase of 309,000 barrels. The drop was the largest since July 2018 and brought stockpiles to their lowest since January, boosting further the sentiment of the already positive black commodity. On the other hand, gold price also skyrocketed by 0.25% to 1315.84 at the time of writing following the unexpected decision from FED have spiked the demand of safe-haven asset as markets were swaying away from the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16.30 CHF SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
16.30 CHF SNB Press Conference
17.00 EUR ECB Economic Bulletin
Tentative EUR EU Leaders Summit
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | CHF – SNB Interest Rate Decision | -0.75% | -0.75% | – |
| 17.30 | GBP – Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 1.0% | -0.4% | – |
| 20.00 | GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision | 0.75% | 0.75% | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 229K | 226K | – |
| 20.30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar) | -4.1 | 4.6 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 95.25. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest index to extend its losses after breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 95.80, 96.40
Support level: 95.25, 94.60
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.3280. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3270.
Resistance level: 1.3270, 1.3335
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3085
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1440. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1440, 1.1480
Support level: 1.1400, 1.1340
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 110.95. MACD which display bearish signals suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 110.40.
Resistance level: 110.95, 111.45
Support level: 110.40, 109.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.7170. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7210
Support level: 0.7125, 0.7080
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from previous resistance level at 0.6900. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6940.
Resistance level: 0.6940, 0.6985
Support level: 0.6900, 0.6865
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3280. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3325, 1.3360
Support level: 1.3280, 1.3245
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 0.9905. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 59.55. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 60.55.
Resistance level: 60.55, 61.90
Support level: 59.55, 58.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1315.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains after successfully closing above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1323.00
Support level: 1305.50, 1294.50