21 June 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback relinquished as data disappoints.
US dollar extended its losses on yesterday following bearish economic data from the region. According to Philadelphia Federal Reserve, its manufacturing PMI for the month of June tumbled down to 0.3, its largest contraction since last February. The data left investors anxious as past economic report from the US shows possible recessive risks ahead. However, the greenback managed to trim some of its losses after Initial Jobless Claims increased only by 216K, lesser than economist forecast of 220K. Overall, market sentiment towards the greenback remains on the downside following the conclusion of two-day Federal Reserve policy meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that although current economic condition does not warrant for a rate cut, any substantial downside risks upon inflation and employment market would eventually lead to adjustments in policy. On the other hand, pound sterling extended its gains following neutral statement delivered by Bank of England. As expected, the central bank left their interest rate unchanged while citing global trade risks which may affect Britain. However, they reiterate for gradual and limited pace of policy tightening if Brexit is being facilitated smoothly. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.50% to 96.09 while pair of GBP/USD rose 0.04% to 1.2704.
As for commodities market, crude oil price appreciates by 0.44% to $57.14 per barrel. Oil prices jumped on yesterday after Iran shot down US spy drone. Heightened tension in between US and Iran may lead to further depreciation in oil supply if Washington decided to take further actions. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.05% to $1,389.12 a troy ounce due to weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Jun) | 44.3 | 44.6 | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 1.7% | 0.6% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (May) | 5.19M | 5.29M | – |
| 01:00
(22nd) |
CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 788 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the index to advance further down, towards the direction of 95.75.
Resistance level: 96.35, 97.05
Support level: 95.75, 95.20
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.2745.
Resistance level: 1.2745, 1.2790
Support level: 1.2630, 1.2515
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.1275. MACD which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.1335.
Resistance level: 1.1335, 1.1380
Support level: 1.1275, 1.1245
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded lower after closing below the support of 107.40. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down, towards the direction of 106.50.
Resistance level: 107.45, 108.80
Support level: 106.50, 104.80
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 0.6930.
Resistance level: 0.6930, 0.6965
Support level: 0.6900, 0.6880
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which continues to illustrate persistent upward signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6600.
Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6660
Support level: 0.6555, 0.6485
USDCAD, Daily: USDCAD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.3220. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3120.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3120, 1.3040
USDCHF, Daily: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level of 0.9805. MACD which formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below 0.9805.
Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9970
Support level: 0.9805, 0.9730
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior close above 57.30. However, MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests its price to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 59.25, 60.85
Support level: 57.30, 54.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended its gains following prior breakout from the resistance at 1374.10. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to advance further up, towards the direction of 1415.00.
Resistance level: 1415.00, 1448.00
Support level: 1390.00, 1374.10