21 September 2017 Daily Analysis
Fed to increase interest rate, dollar bulls in momentum.
Dollar index has regained its strength against the other major currencies after a rise of 0.15% to 92.36, after Fed took decision to paring back its balance sheet and its outlook for increasing interest rates. According to Federal Reserve, it would begin to unwind $4.5 trillion starting in the month of October and signaled to increase interest rates for the third time this year, further assuring investors by stating that economy expansion in United States would not be influenced by the recent hurricane damage. The policy makers kept interest rate unchanged within 1 percent to 1.25 percent, on par with expectation. “We continue to expect that the ongoing strength of the economy will warrant gradual increases in that rate to sustain a healthy labor market and stabilize inflation around our 2 percent longer-run objective,” stated Fed Chair Janet Yellen during a press conference. On the other hand, USD/JPY traded at 112.49, up 0.20%; AUD/USD traded at 0.8005, down 0.20%, NZD/USD fell 0.29% to 0.7333.
In the commodity market, crude oil price was traded flat at $50.69 per barrel while investors continue to assess recent developments in the oil market such as increasing crude inventories and hawkish signal from Iraq’s oil minister. Otherwise, gold prices extended its losses by 13%, trading around $1299.35 per troy ounce following a rise in dollar index due to positive FOMC outlook.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement (YoY)
Tentative JPY BoJ Press Conference
21:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 06:45 | NZD – GDP (QoQ)(Q2) | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| 11:00 | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 284K | 300K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) | 18.9 | 17.2 | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – Wholesale Sales (MoM) (Jul) | -0.5% | -0.9% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower prior its retracement from the top of ascending channel around level 1.36180. Downward slope of MACD histogram suggests the pair to continue its momentum to trade lower, testing the bottom of the ascending channel and support level at 1.3250.
Resistance level: 1.3615, 1.3810
Support level: 1.3250, 1.3155
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower after breaking below support level at 1.1985. The pair is currently testing resistance by 200-MA line around level 1.1870. Successful breaking below the said moving level coupled with death cross of MACD signal line suggests further downward momentum for the pair to trade lower, testing the next support level at 1.1820.
Resistance level: 1.1985, 1.2070
Support level: 1.1870, 1.1820
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher prior its successful breakout above resistance by 200-MA line and resistance level at 111.65. Formation of long bullish candlestick and upward slope of MACD signal line suggests the pair to gain increasing momentum to trade higher, testing the next resistance level at 112.95.
Resistance level: 112.95, 114.30
Support level: 111.65, 110.00
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded in ascending channel and is currently consolidating in the range of resistance level at 51.20 and support level at 49.25. Hidden negative divergence as shown by MACD histogram suggests crude oil price on bias to trade lower, testing the bottom of the ascending channel and support level at 49.25.
Resistance level: 51.20, 53.70
Support level: 49.25, 47.90
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower prior breaking below support by 200-MA around 1304.00. It is currently testing the support level at 1299.05. Successful breakout of the said support level would indicate gold price to further its losses toward the next support level at 1281.05.
Resistance level: 1304.00, 1321.35
Support level: 1299.05, 1281.05