22 February 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Greenback fixates upon US-China trade talk.
US dollar held onto its gains against other major currencies following a rise in US Treasury yields. As of writing, the dollar index was up 0.02% to 96.43 during mid-Asian trading session. In the meantime, investors remained fixated upon US-China trade talks as both countries haggled over the details which is aimed at ending their trade war. Reuters reported exclusively on Wednesday that both sides began to sketch out an agreement over structural issues while drafting six memorandums of understanding (MoU) over proposed Chinese reforms. However, gains on the US dollar remains limited following soft US economic data from yesterday. Thursday’s economic data shows unexpected fall in core capital goods orders and weak existing home sales which reaffirmed expectations that Federal Reserve may halt their monetary policy tightening for this year. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD fell 0.13% to 1.3032. Pound sterling received large selloff after UK government delayed an announcement on no-deal Brexit tariffs, further heightening the uncertainty of UK’s economy after Brexit.
In the commodities market, crude oil was traded flat around $56.85 per barrel. Oil price extended its losses since yesterday after US crude output reportedly hits a record high of 12 million barrels per day. The rise in US production would undermine efforts from OPEC which has reduced their daily production in order to tighten global crude supplies. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.05% to $1,324.84 a troy ounce following strong US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:30 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
00.00 (23rd) USD Fed Monetary Policy Report
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German GDP | 0.0% | 0.0% | – |
| 17.00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 99.00 | 99.1 | – |
| 18.00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Jan) | 1.4% | 1.4% | – |
| 21.30 | Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec) | -0.6% | -0.5% | – |
| 02.00
(23rd) |
CrudeOIl – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 857 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 96.40. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 96.80.
Resistance level: 96.80, 97.05
Support level: 96.40, 96.10
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.3070. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with death cross formation suggest the pair to be traded lower towards the support level 1.2975.
Resistance level: 1.3070, 1.3155
Support level: 1.2975, 1.2895
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1350. However, MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded lower toward the support level 1.1300.
Resistance level: 1.1350, 1.1390
Support level: 1.1300, 1.1260
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the channel bottom level at 110.60. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the channel top level at 110.90.
Resistance level: 110.90, 111.05
Support level: 110.60, 110.40
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 0.7105. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 0.7075.
Resistance level: 0.7105, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7075, 0.7015
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 0.6765. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 0.6765.
Resistance level: 0.6795, 0.6815
Support level: 0.6765, 0.6735
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 1.3200. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.3265.
Resistance level: 1.3265, 1.3325
Support level: 1.3200, 1.3145
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior recent rebound from its low level. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher towards the resistance level 1.0025.
Resistance level: 1.0025, 1.0090
Support level: 0.9990, 0.9945
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 57.45. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with death cross formation suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 56.55.
Resistance level: 57.45, 58.85
Support level: 56.55, 55.50
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 1323.15. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level 1323.15.
Resistance level: 1337.20, 1344.75
Support level: 1323.15, 1303.35