22 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar rose amid upbeat manufacturing data.
Dollar index have rebound against a basket of six major rival pairs following the recent release of manufacturing data on Thursday. According to reports released by Philadelphia Fed, manufacturing index have rose to 13.7 in March which exceed the markets expectation with the prior reading of -4.1. Besides that, initial jobless claims also improved to 221K from 225K which provide further support for the recovery. As the positive data help the greenback pare losses from recent surprising FED, market investors currently remain focused on the trade developments between US and China which could shift the market momentum. Dollar index was edge higher 0.03% to 95.85 as of writing. Meanwhile, GBPUSD recovers 0.11% to 1.3120 from its low at the time of writing after following latest headline data. The Bank of England left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.75% and lifted its first-quarter GDP forecast to 0.3%, above a previous estimates of 0.2% while the update on monetary policy from the central bank was overshadowed by fast developments on the Brexit. Despite that, sterling have regains some support following retails sales beat economist’s estimate with the reading of 0.4% against forecasted reading of -0.4%. However, the pound sterling remains pressured by Brexit developments as market remains concentrate on ongoing Brexit headlines to determine the further direction of the pound sterling.
For the commodities market, crude oil price continues to extend its rally and rose 0.23% to $59.73 at the time of writing following reports on diminishing Iran oil exports. According to tanker data and industry sources, Iran’s oil exports have dropped in March to their lowest daily level this year even before Washington formally requires importing countries to reduce purchases to avoid infringing U.S. sanctions. The drop in Iranian exports added on with OPEC-led supply cut have sent the black commodity to record highs throughout week and the bullish momentum is expected to continue for a period of time. On the other hand, gold price have fell 0.14% to 1307.59 as of writing as the safe-haven metal retreats amid dollar recovery.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative EUR EU Leaders Summit
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16.30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Mar) | 47.6 | 48.0 | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Fed) | 0.3% | – | – |
| 20.30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) | -0.5% | 0.2% | – |
| 22.00 | USD – Existing Home Sales (Feb) | -1.2% | 2.2% | |
| 01.00 (23th) | CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 833 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing the support level 95.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its losses after successfully closing below the support level.
Resistance level: 96.40, 96.70
Support level: 955.80, 95.25
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the bottom-level of the upward channel. MACD which display bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3180.
Resistance level: 1.3180, 1.3335
Support level: 1.3085, 1.3000
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1340. However, MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo short-term technical correction and traded lower towards the support level 1.1340.
Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1440
Support level: 1.1340, 1.1290
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 110.95. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 110.40.
Resistance level: 110.95, 111.45
Support level: 110.40, 109.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 0.7125. MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7080.
Resistance level: 0.7125, 0.7170
Support level: 0.7080, 0.7050
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6865. MACD which illustrate bias bullish signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6900.
Resistance level: 0.6900, 0.6940
Support level: 0.6865, 0.6805
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3360. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3400, 1.3455
Support level: 1.3360, 1.3325
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.9905. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.9950.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9980
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 59.55. However, MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to undergo short-term technical correction and traded lower towards the support level 59.55.
Resistance level: 60.55, 61.90
Support level: 59.55, 58.70
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1305.50. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest gold to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1323.00
Support level: 1305.50, 1294.50