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22 June 2017                       Daily Analysis

 

US dollar retreats as equity market snapped.

US dollar slipped from its prior one-month peak against other major peers on Thursday as losses on Wall Street shares spurred investors to book their profits that are tied to expectations of possibly another interest rate hike by year end. The dollar index sheds 0.20% to 97.15, shying away from one-month high of 97.50. Last week, US Federal Reserve raised their benchmark rates by 25 basis points as widely expected while Fed Chair Janet Yellen downplayed recent signs of inflation softening, catalyzing higher prospects upon the central bank to follow through its plans to have three rate hikes in 2017. “It’s a bit of a pushback from equity space while the market is still digesting what Yellen had said,” explained Jason Leinwand, senior currency strategist. Likewise, pound sterling held gains this morning after Bank of England’s chief economist, Andy Haldane stated that he will support for a British rate hike this year. Likewise, investors will be closely watching political developments in Britain with Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party still in talks with Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party to form a new government. The pair of GBP/USD ticked up 0.03% to $1.2675 during Asian trading hours.

 

As for commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.33% to $42.67, hovering near 10-months low of $42.02. Although Energy Information Administration reported a larger-than-expected draw in crude and gasoline stockpiles, investors are looking for more signs that output cuts led by OPEC are giving substantial results in ending the three-year supply glut. In a similar notion, gold price rose 0.69% to $1,252.01 as cheaper oil price pushed down stock markets while boosting the demand for safe haven assets due to risk aversion.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                                  Event

05:00                     NZD                                        RBNZ Rate Statement

 

Today’s Highlight Economy Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
05:00 NZD – RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 1.75% 1.75% 1.75%
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 237K 240K
20:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) -0.2% 0.7%

 

GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded within a downward channel while recently retraced from the 20-moving average line (red). It is suggested to extend its losses towards the target of support level at 1.2630 in short-term. Likewise, it is suggested to be traded within the downward channel unless a breakout occur at either side of the channel.

 

Resistance level: 1.2710, 1.2800

Support level: 1.2630, 1.2550

 

 

EURUSD

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD remained traded within a downward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. A closure above the resistance level of 1.1170 would suggest EURUSD to extend its upward momentum towards the top level of the channel.

 

Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1205

Support level: 1.1140, 1.1100

 

 

USDJPY

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the strong resistance level of 111.60 while recently closing below the 20-moving average line (red). USDJPY is expected to extend its losses after successfully breaking the support level of 110.90.

 

Resistance level: 111.60, 112.10

Support level: 110.90, 110.30

 

 

CrudeOIL

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remained traded within a downward channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. Such rebound suggests crude oil price to be traded higher in short-term towards the resistance level of 43.00. Likewise, long-term trend direction suggests crude oil price to extend its trading within the downward channel unless a breakout occur at its either side.

 

Resistance level: 43.00, 44.20

Support level: 42.00, 41.00

 

 

GOLD

GOLD_, H1: Gold price has extended its gains following prior formation of golden cross by both moving average line. Recent closure above the 23.6 Fibonacci level of 1250.10 suggests gold price to advance further up towards the target of resistance level at 1256.00.

 

Resistance level: 1256.00, 1260.70

Support level: 1250.10, 1247.00

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