22 July 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Fed to cut rates, others to follow.
US dollar was traded unchanged against other major currencies last Friday following a sharp rebound from the lower level. Overall, bearish sentiment towards the greenback remains intact as market participants expects the Federal Reserve to cut their interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of the month. According to Fed Rate Monitor Tool, expectations for an interest cut by quarter basis points had reached 100% as of writing. In addition, US President Donald Trump continued to place his pressure upon the Fed to cut rates after slamming the central bank for its “faulty thought process” via Twitter. Similarly, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams commented last Thursday that Fed should “act quickly” in order to take “better preventive measures” rather than waiting for inflation to depreciates. Elsewhere, expectation of a rate cut from Fed has given the opportunity for emerging market to cut their interest rates more confidently without undermining the appeal of their currencies. Central banks in Indonesia, South Korea and South Africa has cut their interest rates by 25 basis points last Thursday. During early Asian trading session, the dollar index was flat at 96.75 against a basket of six major currencies.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rebounds by 0.68% to $56.12 per barrel. Oil futures received higher demand following escalating tension in the Persian Gulf after Iran and United States exchanged fire and taking steps which could lead to potential military clash. Potential tension in between both nations would immobilize the most vital waterway for seaborn crude shipments and it would jeopardize the delivery of supply to other parts of the world. On the other hand, gold price slumped 0.09% to $1,424.04 a troy ounce while market participants wait for more signals in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
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Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior closure above 96.75. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term towards the top level of descending channel.
Resistance level: 97.05, 97.50
Support level: 96.75, 96.35
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the MA line.
Resistance level: 1.2580, 1.2660
Support level: 1.2500, 1.2450
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level of sideways channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 1.1245.
Resistance level: 1.1245, 1.1275
Support level: 1.1200, 1.1150
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing at the top level of descending channel. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after a breakout occurs at the top level.
Resistance level: 108.25, 108.50
Support level: 107.70, 107.30
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical corrections.
Resistance level: 0.7040, 0.7070
Support level: 0.7000, 0.6960
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its higher levels. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6765, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6735, 0.6710
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing at the 20-MA line (red). Although MACD has illustrate bearish signal, a close below the MA line is required to attain further market signal.
Resistance level: 1.3060, 1.3090
Support level: 1.3045, 1.3020
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9835, 0.9890
Support level: 0.9805, 0.9730
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher while currently testing at the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its price to extend further up after closing above the MA line.
Resistance level: 57.25, 58.85
Support level: 55.70, 55.00
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded flat near the support level of 1423.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggest its price to be traded higher after a successful rebound from the support level.
Resistance level: 1435.00, 1448.00
Support level: 1423.00, 1415.00