22 August 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Sterling falters over no-deal Brexit.
Pound sterling retrace further from its previous high level after French government reportedly sees a no-deal Brexit as the baseline for 31st October deadline. In a report published by Reuters, top officials in French President Emmanuel Macron’s office commented that a no-deal Brexit will likely be the fallout from UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s demand for the EU to drop the Irish backstop. Last Tuesday, Johnson demanded the backstop to be removed from previously negotiated Brexit deal. A backstop is an insurance policy to keep Irish border open after UK leaves the European Union. However, as investors has priced in for a higher chance of a no-deal Brexit in October, losses experienced by pound sterling was rather limited. As of writing, pair of GBP/USD ticks up 0.02% to 1.2129 this morning. On the other hand, US dollar advanced further upwards albeit more rate cuts hinted in the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Most policymakers viewed the recent rate cut as a part of mid-cycle adjustment while more rate cut in the future may be initiated in order to provide support to the economy. The dollar index rose 0.07% to 98.13.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.23% to $56.05 per barrel. Oil futures remained supported after Energy Information Administration reported a draw of -2.7 million barrels of oil stocks last week, slightly higher than forecast of -1.9 million barrels. Otherwise, gold price was traded flat at $1,502.54 a troy ounce while market participants waits for further signals.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Aug) | 43.2 | 43.0 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 220K | 216K | – |
| 21:45 | USD – Services PMI (Aug) | 53.0 | 52.9 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following a retrace from prior high. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 98.30, 98.65
Support level: 97.95, 97.80
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from 1.2115. MACD which begins to form bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further up, towards the direction of 1.2140.
Resistance level: 1.2140, 1.2170
Support level: 1.2115, 1.2090
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to advance further up in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1115, 1.1170
Support level: 1.1070, 1.1025
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY remains traded within a sideways channel formation. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 106.75, 107.25
Support level: 105.60, 105.05
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the top level of descending channel. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.6830, 0.6925
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6675
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further down in the mid-term.
Resistance level: 0.6400, 0.6420
Support level: 0.6395, 0.6370
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.3335, 1.3375
Support level: 1.3280, 1.3255
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing at the resistance of 0.9820. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.9820.
Resistance level: 0.9820, 0.9890
Support level: 0.9775, 0.9700
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its price to be traded higher after closing above the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 56.40, 57.30
Support level: 55.55, 54.45
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a sideways channel formation. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1509.00, 1523.00
Support level: 1495.50, 1483.50