23 May 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Canadian dollar fell despite strong retail sales.
The Canadian dollar fell against the US dollar despite better than expected retail sales data that was released on Wednesday. According to Statistics Canada, its Retail Sales for the month of March came in at an impressive reading of 1.7%, beating market expectation with a reading of only 0.9%. However, bullish momentum upon the Canadian dollar was short-lived as market sentiment remains sour due to depreciating crude oil price following a surprise increase in US inventories level. As Canada is one of the major oil producers in the world, depreciation of its price will bring significant impact upon their currency. For the time being, investors will shift their focus towards future economic news and data from the region to determine the market direction for the pair of USD/CAD. As of writing, USD/CAD rose 0.14% to 1.3445 while the dollar index extended gains by 0.10% to 97.95.
In the commodities market, crude oil price sank 0.42% to $60.92 per barrel amid a large buildup in crude stockpiles and dire economic concerns. According to Energy Information Association, crude oil inventories increased by 4.7 million to 476.8 million, hitting their highest levels since July 2017 following weak demand for the commodity. Besides the weak demand, the increase in stockpiles also weighted by planned sales of U.S. strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) into the commercial market. Thus, the surging stockpiles have dragged the sentiment down while investors ponder for more signals with regards to trade war to gain further insights. On the other hand, gold price fell 0.05% to $1273.05 a troy ounce as the safe-haven commodity remains pressured by resilient dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
19:30 EUR ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (May) | 44.4 | 44.8 | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 99.2 | 99.2 | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 212K | 215K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Apr) | 692K | 675K | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 97.95. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest index to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 97.95, 98.25
Support level: 97.60, 97.00
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.2690. MACD which display diminished bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.2615.
Resistance level: 1.2690, 1.2785
Support level: 1.2615, 1.2515
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.1180. MACD which display bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its retracement towards the support level 1.1120.
Resistance level: 1.1180, 1.1240
Support level: 1.1120, 1.1010
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 110.20. However, MACD which display bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be trade lower towards the support level 110.20.
Resistance level: 110.55, 110.95
Support level: 110.20, 109.70
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat below the 20-MA line (green). Due to lack of momentum and signal from the MACD, a breakout below the support level 0.6860 or resistance level 0.6915 is required for further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6915, 0.6970
Support level: 0.6860, 0.6820
NZDUSD, Daily: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 0.6505. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.6435.
Resistance level: 0.6505, 0.6545
Support level: 0.6435, 0.6395
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD remained traded in a sideway channel after breaking above previous resistance level at 1.3435. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the top-level of the channel at 1.3485.
Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3380
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.0085. MACD which display bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.0130, 1.0190
Support level: 1.0085, 1.0040
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 61.80. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses towards the support level 60.15.
Resistance level: 61.80, 63.15
Support level: 60.15, 58.45
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1275.40. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest gold to extend its retracement towards the support level 1266.35.
Resistance level: 1275.40, 1282.30
Support level: 1266.35, 1253.25