23 August 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Merkel comment lighted up soft Brexit possibility.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies rose following hawkish comment from President of Fed Bank of Philadelphia. In an interview with CNBC, Fed Harker commented that he is reluctant to see further rate cut since the economy remains resilient and does not need more stimulus as of now. This comment has dragged down the market expectation on further rate cut to 90% from 100% previously while minority of them shifted their view to probability of no rate cut during the September Fed meeting. Nonetheless, market are still keeping their eye on Jerome Powell Speaks as it will provide a clearer signal on interest rate decision. During Asian trading session, dollar index inched up 0.15% to $98.15. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD quoted down 0.13% to 1.2235 after hitting 3 weeks high supported by optimistic comment on Irish backstop issue from German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Yesterday, Angela Merkel revealed that the Irish backstop may possibly be solved before the deadline of 31th October, signaling her willingness to compromise with Boris Johnson. This news has lifted up market’s expectation of a soft Brexit as U.K lawmakers may approve the draft without border issue.
In terms of commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.11% to $55.30 per barrel amid investors’ expectation of oil market facing near team supply deficit. Recently, OPEC+ oil cuts and the escalation of supply disruptions in Iran and Venezuela have eased the market concern over supply glut. On the other hand, gold price tumbled 0.26% to $1494.00 se troy ounce amid hawkish comment from Fed’s member which reduced the market risk preference.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative USD Jackson Hole Symposium
22.00 USD Fed Chair Powell Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun) | -0.3% | -0.1% | – |
| 22.00 | USD – New Home Sales (Jul) | 646K | 649K | – |
| 01.00 (24th) | CrudeOIL – U.S. Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 770 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 98.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest index to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 98.40.
Resistance level: 98.40, 98.65
Support level: 98.00, 97.50
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.2220. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.2300, 1.2370
Support level: 1.2220, 1.2165
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 1.1070. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.1030.
Resistance level: 1.1070, 1.1115
Support level: 1.1030, 1.0960
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 106.70. However, due to lack of signal from the MACD, a breakout above or retracement from the resistance level is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 106.70, 107.25
Support level: 106.00, 105.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remained traded in a sideway channel while currently testing bottom-level of the channel at support level 0.6750. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.6825, 0.6865
Support level: 0.6750, 0.6695
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.6395. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.6395, 0.6465
Support level: 0.6330, 0.6270
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.3340.
Resistance level: 1.3340, 1.3385
Support level: 1.3275, 1.3220
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 0.9840. MACD which illustrate ongoing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.9890.
Resistance level: 0.9890, 0.9940
Support level: 0.9840, 0.9805
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 55.00. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 55.90.
Resistance level: 55.90, 56.80
Support level: 55.00, 54.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1494.05. However, due to lack of signal and momentum from the MACD, a breakout below or rebound from the support level is required to obtain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1508.25, 1526.60
Support level: 1494.05, 1475.00