23 November 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Pound rallies as Brexit draft finalized.
Greenback extended its back foot on Thursday following a surge in pound sterling after reports shows that the UK and EU have reached an agreement on a post Brexit draft text. According to Bloomberg, the news outlet reported that the draft text explicitly mentioned both UK and EU will be committed to “deep” customs operation and build on “single custom territory”. Likewise, the EU is to recognize UK’s independent trade policy and the transition period can be extended for up to one or two years. The draft has dialed down market anxiousness towards possibility for a “hard” Brexit as some of the clauses mentioned are skewed towards a “soft” Brexit approach. According to European Council President Donald Tusk, the draft has reached the consensus of all negotiators and it will now subject to the endorsement of all EU leaders. Otherwise, greenback failed to gain any substantial support during North American session as the US market were closed for Thanksgiving holiday. We would expect light trading ahead as the US market is expected to close earlier today as well. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.22% to 96.32 while GBP/USD ticks up 0.03% to 1.2876.
On the commodities market, crude oil price rose 0.06% to $53.91 per barrel. The commodity price received some support after Saudi Arabian Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said that the kingdom would respond accordingly to weak oil demand in the future. Otherwise, gold price ticks up 0.02% to $1,227.55 a troy ounce following weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All day Japan Labor Thanksgiving Day
All day US Thanksgiving Day – Early close at 13:00
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 15:00 | EUR – German GDP (QoQ) (Q3) | -0.2% | -0.2% | – |
| 16:30 | EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Nov) | 52.2 | 52.3 | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Core CPI (MoM) (Oct) | 0.0% | – | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) | -0.4% | 0.3% | – |
| 02:00 (24th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 888 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index remains traded within a narrowing triangle following prior retrace from the top. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards 96.20.
Resistance level: 96.60, 97.00
Support level: 96.20, 95.95
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a descending channel while currently testing at the top level. MACD which illustrate the formation of golden cross suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the top level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.2895, 1.2955
Support level: 1.2805, 1.2690
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. However, MACD which begins to form a death cross formation suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1450
Support level: 1.1360, 1.1310
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 112.95. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term towards the direction of 113.30.
Resistance level: 113.30, 113.70
Support level: 112.95, 112.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD remains traded within an ascending channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher towards 0.7265.
Resistance level: 0.7265, 0.7340
Support level: 0.7170, 0.7105
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD remains traded within a descending channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 0.6815, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6795, 0.6775
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 1.3210.
Resistance level: 1.3210, 1.3255
Support level: 1.3155, 1.3115
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a tight range in between 0.9905 and 0.9955. Due to the lack of signal from MACD and price action, it is suggested to wait for a breakout to occur before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.9955, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower and currently testing near the support level of 53.90. MACD which begins to form a bearish signal suggests its prices to extend its losses after successfully closing below the threshold of 53.90.
Resistance level: 55.35, 57.00
Support level: 53.90, 49.50
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 1228.00. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests its prices to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.25
Support level: 1215.95, 1206.00