24 January 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Aussie skydived as mortgage rate rises.
Australian dollar received tremendous selloff in the FX market after one of the major Australia banks hiked their mortgage loan rates. As of writing, pair of AUD/USD slumped 0.20% to 0.7127. According to Reuters, National Australia Bank (NAB) has announced their decision to raise mortgage rates by 12 to 16 basis points in response to sustained increase in funding cost. Prior, NAB was the only Australia’s Big Four banks that chose not to lift its mortgage rates last year in order to garner higher market share in the sector. Investors believes that a mortgage hike by major lenders may accentuate towards housing market slowdown and force Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut their interest rates further. However, losses on the Australian dollar was limited after regional employment data shows better-than-expected reading for the month of December. On the other hand, pair of EUR/USD rose 0.07%, last seen around 1.1389 during mid-Asian trading session. Currently, investors are keeping an eye on European Central Bank’s interest rate decision later today which is highly expected to keep their policy accommodative for an extended period of time.
In the commodities market, crude oil price ticks up 0.06% to $52.12 per barrel. Oil price extended its recovery from prior losses while market participants continues to monitor global economic growth performance and outlook. Otherwise, gold price ticks up 0.03% to $1,283.24 a troy ounce following weaker US dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
21.30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | EUR -German Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 51.5 | 51.3 | – |
| 20:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Jan) | 0.0% | 0.0% | – |
| 20.45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | -0.40% | – |
| 20.45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 21.30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 213K | 220K | – |
| 22.45 | USD – Manufacturing PMI (Jan) | 53.8 | 53.5 | – |
| 22.45 | USD – Services PMI (Jan) | 54.4 | 54.1 | – |
| 00:00 (25th) | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -2.683M | -0.042M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 95.75. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above 95.75.
Resistance level: 95.75, 96.10
Support level: 95.60, 95.30
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from its prior high. MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3180
Support level: 1.3030, 1.2960
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the downward trendline. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the target of 1.1380.
Resistance level: 1.1405, 1.1420
Support level: 1.1380, 1.1370
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound near the support of 109.35. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards, towards the direction of 109.90.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.25
Support level: 109.35, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level near 0.7115. MACD which has formed a bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support of 0.7115.
Resistance level: 0.7145, 0.7220
Support level: 0.7115, 0.7070
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level of narrowing triangle. MACD which illustrates diminishing bullish momentum may suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term.
Resistance level: 0.6780, 0.6840
Support level: 0.6710, 0.6645
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which has begun to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to advance further upwards, towards the direction of 1.3360.
Resistance level: 1.3360, 1.3385
Support level: 1.3320, 1.3290
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior closure below the support of 0.9950. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to advance further downward, towards the direction of 0.9905.
Resistance level: 0.9950, 0.9990
Support level: 0.9905, 0.9835
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within an ascending channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term, towards the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 52.80, 54.40
Support level: 51.85, 50.10
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within an ascending channel. However, MACD which has formed a death cross signal suggests its prices to extend its losses in short-term, towards the bottom level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1284.35, 1287.20
Support level: 1280.00, 1273.55