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24 March 2023                   Afternoon Session Analysis

 

Bank of England raises interest as expectations, Pound nudged up.

The pound sterling nudged up after the Bank of England (BoE) raised interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, a new 15 years high. The decision comes a day after the Office for National Statistics (ONS) announced inflation rate  rose to 10.4% in February, amid food prices raised and robust wage growth in the UK. The BoE warned that further tightening in monetary policy would be required even though inflation fall in February. Meanwhile, economists raised their forecasts for UK growth by 0.4 percent following the government’s new budget The new fiscal support from the UK government included energy price support for households and SMEs and new tax relief for loss-making R&D-intensive SMEs. However, a series of optimistic economic data was announced in the US, strengthening the dollar and offsetting the gains of the pound. The US’s labor market remains resilient as initial Jobless claims reduced by 1k to 191k, lower reading than the prior month’s reading of 192K. In addition, sterling gains were offset by Governor Andrew’s earlier dovish statement. Bailey had signaled after a 50-basis point hike in February that the bank might not tighten policy any further, and inflations are expected to fall sharply at the end of the year. This statement increases the odds that BoE will not further rate hikes. As of writing, the GBPUSD slipped -0.04% to $1.2279.

In the commodity market, the crude oil price edged up by 0.13% to $70.06 per barrel as of writing Before this, the oil prices traded down as prior session on US officials said it will be difficult to immediately refill the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). On the other side, the gold price traded down by 0.29% to $1990.615 per troy ounce as of writing following prior optimistic economic data from the US.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

18:00                     EUR                       EU Leaders Summit

21:30                     USD                       FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
16:30 EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Mar) 46.3 47.0
17:00                 EUR – S&P Global Composite PMI (Mar) 52.0 52.0
17:30 GBP – Composite PMI 53.1 52.7
17:30 GBP – Manufacturing PMI 49.3 50.0
17:30 GBP – Services PMI 53.5 53.0
20:30 USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Feb) 0.8% 0.2%
20:30 CAD – Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan) -0.6% 0.6%
21:45 USD – S&P Global Composite PMI (Mar) 50.1 47.5

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following a prior rebound from the support level at 101.70. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 103.00.

 

Resistance level: 103.00, 104.45

Support level: 101.70, 100.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following a prior breakout the previous support level a t 1.2300. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2145.

 

Resistance level: 1.2300, 1.2445

Support level: 1.2145, 1.2010

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following a prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses.

 

Resistance level: 1.0930, 1.1070

Support level: 1.0790, 1.0635

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing for the support level at 130.25. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses if successfully break below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 132.30, 134.55

Support level: 130.25, 128.00

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6685. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6600.

 

Resistance level: 0.6775, 0.6685

Support level: 0.6600, 0.6525

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6265. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6195.

 

Resistance level: 0.6265, 0.6325

Support level: 0.6195, 0.6120

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following a prior break above the previous resistance level at 1.3685. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3785.

 

Resistance level: 1.3865, 1.4070

Support level: 1.3675, 1.3500

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following a prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9180.

 

Resistance level: 0.9180, 0.9285

Support level: 0.9090, 0.9005

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following a prior break below from the previous support level at 70.65. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 68.30.

 

Resistance level: 70.65, 73.20

Support level: 68.30, 66.05

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following a prior retracement from the higher level. However, MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the commodity to undergo a technical correction in the short term.

 

Resistance level: 2030.10, 2009.10

Support level: 1985.50, 1954.90