25 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar steady amid upbeat housing data, Yen stronger.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currencies was traded steadily following prior release of higher than expected Existing Home Sales data on Friday with a reading of 5.51M compared to 5.10M. After declining for two-consecutive months, the rebound in home sales exerted positive sentiment for the dollar after being pressured by dovish FOMC statement. Last week FOMC statement included the abandonment of Fed’s plan for rate hike this year as well as the narrowing amount of its maturing securities to roll off each month from $4.5 trillion to $4 trillion. Greenback gains was also limited by poor manufacturing and services data, which heightened investors’ worries towards a slowdown in the US economy. Furthermore, the inverted government bond yields which signals a recession worsen the sentiment for the dollar, causing investors to seek shelter from safe-haven assets such as the Japanese Yen and gold. As of writing, dollar index was up by 0.02% to 96.10 while pair of USD/JPY was down by 0.13% to 109.75.
For the commodities market, crude oil price further its losses by 0.83% to $58.42 per barrel despite upbeat US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count data which reported a reduction of 9 oil rig last week. Although oil prices remained supported by persistent OPEC’s glut cut and sanctions towards Venezuela and Iranian oil, the growing concerns on economic slowdown in the US had spiraled fears on possible decline in oil demand. Investors will now focus on US-Sino trade war results which will strongly affect the sentiment for oil market. Likewise, gold price was up by 0.10% to $1314.35 per troy ounce following fears on economic slowdown.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
14:30 JPY BOJ Board Member Harada Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 17:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 98.5 | 98.7 | – |
| 05:45 (26th) | NZD – Trade Balance (MoM) (Feb) | -914M | -200M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 96.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its losses toward the support level at 95.70.
Resistance level: 96.20, 96.40
Support level: 95.70, 95.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from resistance level at 1.3215. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3130.
Resistance level: 1.3215, 1.3295
Support level: 1.3130, 1.3065
EURUSD, Daily: EURUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.1295. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the next support level at 1.1195.
Resistance level: 1.1295, 1.1405
Support level: 1.1195, 1.1085
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 109.70. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 109.70.
Resistance level: 110.10, 110.85
Support level: 109.70, 109.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level at 0.7095. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 0.7050.
Resistance level: 0.7095, 0.7120
Support level: 0.7050, 0.7005
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher within the sideway channel following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6865. Due to lack of signal from MACD, a rebound from or breakout below the support level is required to attain further confirmation before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.6895, 0.6935
Support level: 0.6865, 0.6840
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 1.3390. MACD which display bullish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3460.
Resistance level: 1.3460, 1.3540
Support level: 1.3390, 1.3345
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.9930. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9965.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 0.9985
Support level: 0.9930, 0.9895
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 59.05. MACD which display bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level at 58.25.
Resistance level: 59.05, 59.70
Support level: 58.25, 56.80
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 1315.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum with the formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1315.00.
Resistance level: 1315.00, 1323.00
Support level: 1308.15, 1300.25