25 May 2017 Daily Analysis
Dollar taken aback by cautious Feds.
US dollar remained defensive on Thursday following less hawkish Federal Reserve meeting minutes that has spook off dollar-bulls. In the discussion concerning future rate hike, most Feds suggested a further increase in short-term rates sooner should the economy remain on track with their expectations. However, such hawkish view was dialed down by comments from some members whom highlighted to held off raising interest rates too soon until further evidence suggests that the recent economic slowdown is only temporary. Likewise, the dollar index was down 0.25% to 96.88 against its major peers this morning. As for other region, euro regained some upward momentum while hovering near six-months high as market attention place the limelight on European Central Bank (ECB). The single common currency was up 0.05% to $1.1225 against the greenback during Asian trading hours. Euro enjoyed a bull run since early of the month following diminished French political risks and recent upbeat economic performance in Eurozone which has increased overall speculation for ECB to dial back their Quantitative Easing program.
Otherwise, crude oil price was up 0.82% to $51.78 per barrel following deeper than expected draw on US crude inventories. According to Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories for the week ended May 19th fell by 4.43 million barrels, as compared to expectation of only 2.4 million. Likewise, gold price rebounds by 0.42% to $1,257.71 as Fed meeting minutes gave dovish signals.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CHF Switzerland – Ascension Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative Crude Oil OPEC Meeting
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 0.3% | 0.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 232K | 238K | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing near the top level of the channel. As both moving average line changes its direction and head upwards, it suggests a higher chance of breaking the top level of the channel and move further upwards thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.2985, 1.3010
Support level: 1.2965, 1.2950
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD snapped out from its losses and rebounded from the support level of 1.1160 while closing above the 20-moving average line (red). As the downward signal from MACD histogram continues to narrow upwards, EURUSD is suggested to advance further up and retest near the resistance level of 1.1260.
Resistance level: 1.1260, 1.1345
Support level: 1.1160, 1.1070
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remained traded within an upward channel following prior retracement from the top level of the channel. However, as Stochastic Oscillator still illustrate a rebound signal from the oversold region, a closure above the resistance level of 111.75 would suggest USDJPY to advance further up towards the upper level of the channel thereafter.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.10
Support level: 111.45, 111.15
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, Daily: Crude oil price remains traded within a downward channel while currently testing near the key resistance level at 51.80 and top level of the channel. Referring to both MA lines which continues to narrow upwards, it suggests a higher chance of breaking the top level of the channel and move further upwards thereafter.
Resistance level: 51.80, 53.75
Support level: 49.10, 47.20
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within an ascending triangle following prior rebound from the bottom level of the triangle. Recent closure above the 20-moving average line (red) suggests gold price to advance further up in short-term, towards the resistance level of 1263.00. Long-term trend direction can only be determined following a successful breakout from either side of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1263.00, 1271.00
Support level: 1253.80, 1246.00