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25 May 2023                       Afternoon Session Analysis

 

The Kiwi moved opposite after RBNZ hiked the 25bps rate.

The New Zealand dollar traded against the greenback, and extended its losses after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hiked the official cash rate by 25 bps from 5.25% to 5.50%, in an effort to further control inflation. The RBNZ members agreed to hike the rate amid employment well above its maximum sustainable level and core inflation will remain until the factory capacity constraints ease further. Since both data provided evidence for RBNZ to hike the rate, therefore the tightening moves were widely expected by investors. Usually, the rate decision will be accompanied by the RBNZ rate statement, and investors are waiting for a more hawkish RBNZ statement to get a hint of the future direction of the currency that will provide more. However, the project by the central bank was more dovish than expected and caused the Kiwi to drop significantly. The central bank projected that would be a rate cut for the next move, which could likely come later next year.  Meanwhile, the retail sales in April were recorded at -1.4% from -1.0% in the previous quarter, reflecting households reduced their spending. The retail sales data fell for the second consecutive quarter as higher interest pressure was on the overall retail activity.  New Zealand households are squeezed in their finances after the cost-of-living increases. As of writing, the NZDUSD extended losses by -0.41% to $0.6088.

In the commodities market, crude oil prices were tickled down by -0.16% to $74.22 per barrel as the growing pressure from the strong dollar. Besides, gold prices edged up by 0.01% to $1957.38 per troy ounce as the uncertainty of the US debt ceiling talks.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:30 USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) 2.6% 1.1%
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 242K 250K
22:00 USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) -5.2% 0.5%

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following the prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 103.75. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the index extended its gains toward the resistance level at 104.45.

 

Resistance level: 104.45, 105.20

Support level: 103.75, 102.85

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.2445. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 1.2300.

 

Resistance level: 1.2445, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.0790. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 1.0635.

 

Resistance level: 1.0790, 1.0940

Support level: 1.0635, 1.0505

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following the prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 139.80.

 

Resistance level: 139.80, 141.60

Support level: 138.15, 136.30

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower when currently testing for the support level at 0.6525. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses if successfully breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6600, 0.6685

Support level: 0.6525, 0.6440

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following the prior breaks below from the previous support level at 0.6120. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair undergoes a technical correction in the short term.

 

Resistance level: 0.6120, 0.6195

Support level: 0.6050, 0.5980

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following the prior breaks above the previous resistance level at 1.3600. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 1.3685, 1.3785

Support level: 1.3600, 1.3515

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 0.9005. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its gains toward the resistance level at 0.9090.

 

Resistance level: 0.9090, 0.9180

Support level: 0.9005, 0.8925

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following the prior rebound from the support level at 73.20. However, MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity undergoes a technical correction in the short term.

 

Resistance level: 76.05, 79.15

Support level: 73.20, 70.65

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following the prior retracement from the resistance level at 1985.50. MACD which illustrated diminishing bullish momentum suggests the commodity extended its losses toward the support level at 1954.90.

 

Resistance level: 1985.50, 2009.10

Support level: 1954.90, 1928.15