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25 June 2020                       Morning Session Analysis

 

Dollar soars as geopolitical risk heightened.

Dollar index which gauges its value against a basket of six major currencies managed to extend its rebound yesterday following the latest news showed that US is intended to implement new round of tariff against Europe and UK. According to the US Trade Representative’s latest statement, Trump Administration will most likely weighing new tariff against $3.1 Billion imported goods from France, Germany, Spain and UK. In details, EU imported goods such as gin, beer, potatoes, trucks are targeted in the new tariff plan, while the duties on products such as aircrafts, cheese and yogurt will be increased. This decision was come after few months of review regarding to the Europe’s illegal subsidies to Airbus, where it has created an unfair competitive environment in the view of US. As of now, there is still lack of details with regards to the tariff plan, however market are expecting the new round of tariff will be implemented in September, by which point WHO will have to determine whether the EU can legally impose tariff against imported goods from US. The situation of heightening tensions between US and EU sparked the appeal of dollar as a safe haven currency. As of writing, dollar index rose 0.58% to 97.20.

 

In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.34% to $37.90 per barrel as latest inventory data shows a high build-up in US crude oil inventories level. According to the EIA, US Crude Oil Inventories data came in at 1.442M, higher than the economist forecast at 0.299M, market worries increased as recovery of demand seems to be slower than expectation. Besides, gold price inched up 0.16% to $1763.70 after US decided to implement new tariff plan against EU.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

All Day                   CNY                                        Dragon Boat Festival

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:30 USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)(May) -7.7% 2.5%
20:30 USD – GDP (QoQ)(Q1) -5.0% -5.0%
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 1,508K 1,300K


 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 96.90. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 97.55.

 

Resistance level: 97.55, 98.75

Support level: 96.90, 96.10

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1.2435. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.2345.

 

Resistance level: 1.2435, 1.2525

Support level: 1.2345, 1.2230

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.1245. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after it successfully breakout below the support level at 1.1245.

 

Resistance level: 1.1320, 1.1390

Support level: 1.1245, 1.1165

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 106.80. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 107.45.

 

Resistance level: 107.45, 107.90

Support level: 106.80, 106.35

 

AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which display bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6810.

 

Resistance level: 0.7115, 0.7295

Support level: 0.6810, 0.6500

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6480. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.6380.

 

Resistance level: 0.6480, 0.6580

Support level: 0.6380, 0.6265

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.3500. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3675.

 

Resistance level: 1.3675, 1.3865

Support level: 1.3500, 1.3355

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 0.9475. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout above the resistance level at 0.9475.

 

Resistance level: 0.9475, 0.9540

Support level: 0.9430, 0.9380

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 39.25. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 37.45.

 

Resistance level: 39.25, 41.35

Support level: 37.45, 34.65

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1764.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1741.75.

 

Resistance level: 1778.35, 1794.30

Support level: 1764.00, 1741.75