25 October 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar sky-high as regional risk lingers.
US dollar remains resilient near 9-weeks high while a surge in Canadian dollar capped off any substantial gains on the currency. In the US front, Census Bureau reported that the New Home Sales for September came in lower than expected with only 553K versus forecast of 627K. However, the bearish data failed to hold off dollar-bulls as other major currencies such as pound sterling and euro slumped sharply on yesterday. For the UK, investors were unnerved as Brexit talks came to a stall just five months until Brexit cut-off date is due. On the other hand, market participant’s sentiment turned sour towards the EU as European Union took an unprecedented step to reject Italy’s budget on Tuesday following concerns over the impact of increased spending on an already high national debt level. On the other hand, Canadian dollar received higher demand since yesterday following Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision to increase their interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%. In addition, BoC has also dropped the reference to “gradual” rate hike, signaling a more aggressive plan to tighten their monetary policy as compared to prior. As of writing, dollar index was up 0.02% to 96.02 while USD/CAD was down 0.16% to 1.3035.
As for commodities, crude oil price was down by 0.21% to $66.14 per barrel after EIA reported a large increase in last week’s crude oil inventories by 6.346 million barrels versus forecast of only 3.694 million barrels. On the other hand, gold price surged 0.17% to $1,236.41 a troy ounce following bomb threat headline across the United States which target conservative vitriol such as Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:00 | EUR – German Ifo Business Climate Index | 103.7 | 103.1 | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | -0.40% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Marginal Lending Facility | 0.25% | 0.25% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Oct) | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 210K | 214K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Sep) | 0.1% | 0.5% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Sep) | -1.8% | -0.1% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from 2 months high. MACD which begins to form a death cross formation suggests the index to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.30
Support level: 95.75, 95.50
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 1.2860. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2910, 1.2955
Support level: 1.2860, 1.2810
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.1385. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.1445, 1.1485
Support level: 1.1385, 1.1320
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout from the bottom level of ascending channel. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the level of 111.90.
Resistance level: 112.15, 112.45
Support level: 111.90, 111.60
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.7055. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7090, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7055, 0.7000
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 0.6500. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.6540, 0.6575
Support level: 0.6500, 0.6460
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retrace near the 60-MA line (green). MACD which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the upward trendline.
Resistance level: 1.3080, 1.3115
Support level: 1.3010, 1.2925
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within an ascending channel following prior retrace from the top. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.9975, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9945, 0.9915
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retrace from the resistance of 67.35. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the commodity price to advance further down after breaking the support level at 66.10.
Resistance level: 67.35, 68.55
Support level: 66.10, 64.90
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the top level. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the commodity price to advance further up after breaking the top level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1238.35, 1248.00
Support level: 1230.00, 1221.00