26 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar remained pressured by signs of recession.
Dollar index measuring against a basket of six major currencies was under pressured by growing concerns of an economic recession. Recent inversion of US treasury yield curves spiraled fears onto the market that the economy cycle is slowly phasing into recession, with further confirmation from the slowdown in its economy as stated in the previous FOMC statement. However, poorer sentiment from riskier market such as Brexit uncertainties kept a strong appeal for the dollar while supporting its fall. Recent Brexit developments advanced to the extension of Article 50 until 22nd May only if the UK Parliament approves Prime Minister Theresa May withdrawal agreement later today. Otherwise, a rejection in today’s vote will force UK to decide by 12th April whether to leave the EU without a deal or participate in the next European elections to obtain a longer delay of Article 50. However, the pound held its grounds on Monday after British lawmakers voted to take over control of the Brexit process from May for a day, but remained pressured as market worries that no significant changes can be made towards the Brexit process. Investors will now focus on today’s third-time Brexit vote to further gauge the market movements. As of writing, dollar index fell by 0.08% to 95.95 while pair of GBP/USD edged lower by 0.02% to 1.3195.
For the commodities market, crude oil price rose by 0.32% to $59.25 per barrel amid continuous effort in OPEC’s production cut and also US sanctions on both Venezuelan and Iranian oil. In addition to that, recent oil inventory level further supported the oil price as reports from both API and EIA recorded declining inventories level. However, fear of economic slowdown had recently limited the gains of crude oil while investors await further signal from US-Sino trade war which may affect global oil demand. Likewise, gold price retraced by 0.07% to $1320.75 per troy ounce after hitting one-month high amid Brexit uncertainties and fear of economic recession in the US.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Building Permits (Feb) | 1.317M | 1.320M | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Mar) | 131.4 | 132.0 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 96.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its losses toward the support level at 95.70.
Resistance level: 96.20, 96.40
Support level: 95.70, 95.45
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1.3220. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3130.
Resistance level: 1.3220, 1.3295
Support level: 1.3130, 1.3065
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 1.1320. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after it successfully breakout the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.1320, 1.1355
Support level: 1.1280, 1.1225
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 109.70 MACD which display bullish signals suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 110.35.
Resistance level: 110.35, 110.85
Support level: 109.70, 109.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 0.7120. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7005
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the resistance level at 0.6895. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 0.6935.
Resistance level: 0.6935, 0.6970
Support level: 0.6895, 0.6870
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.3390. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully close the candle below support level at 1.3390.
Resistance level: 1.3460, 1.3540
Support level: 1.3390, 1.3345
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.9930. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9895.
Resistance level: 0.9930, 0.9965
Support level: 0.9895, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 59.05. MACD which display bullish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 59.70.
Resistance level: 59.70, 60.25
Support level: 59.05, 58.25
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 1323.00. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level at 1323.00.
Resistance level: 1323.00, 1331.35
Support level: 1315.00, 1308.15