27 April 2017 Daily Analysis
Trump whistles tax reform, financial market isn’t impressed.
US dollar clings on to some gains on Thursday after US President Donald Trump’s tax plans offered no new surprises, halting its rally while market participants shift their focus towards European Central Bank’s upcoming monetary policy decision. The dollar index was little changed at 98.93, slightly lower from overnight session’s high of 99.33. Trump’s tax reform would cut income tax rate paid by public corporations from 35% to 15% and reduce the top tax rate assessed on pass-through businesses which includes small partnership and sole proprietorships from 39.6% to 15%. “Trump’s tax plan did not go beyond what the media has been covering for the week. Although the plan appears ambitious, its foundations are shaky from revenue perspective,” said senior forex strategist, Junichi Ishikawa. In the European market, the single common currency – euro gained 0.1% to $1.0911, not far from 5½ months high of $1.0951. The central bank is due to announce its policy decision later in the day and market participants eyes whether recent French election results would have any influence on ECB’s stance and approach.
As for commodities, crude oil price was down 0.52% to $49.36 due to a swell in US gasoline inventories due to lagging demand. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.26% to $1,266.05 as global uncertainty subsides while coupled with a strong dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
Tentative JPY BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
Tentative JPY BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
14:30 JPY BoJ Press Conference
20:30 EUR ECB Press Conference
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| Tentative | JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision | -0.10% | -0.10% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – Deposit Facility Rate | -0.40% | -0.40% | – |
| 19:45 | EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr) | 0.00% | 0.00% | – |
| 20:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Apr) | 0.2% | -0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar) | 0.5% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 244K | 245K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) | 5.5% | -1.0% | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the top of the channel. A breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further upwards. Otherwise, a retrace would suggest GBPUSD to be traded lower within the channel thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.2855, 1.2905
Support level: 1.2810, 1.2770, 1.2700
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an upward channel after rebounding from the bottom level of the channel. A closure above the resistance level of 1.0920 would suggest EURUSD to advance further up, towards the upper level of the channel.
Resistance level: 1.0920, 1.0965
Support level: 1.0875, 1.0830
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY were traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-moving average line (red). As the MACD indicator remains hovered outside of upward momentum, USDJPY is expected to be traded lower in the short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction suggests USDJPY to extend its uptrend.
Resistance level: 111.40, 111.75
Support level: 110.95, 110.45
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a trading range of 49.00 and 50.20. Recent rebound from the bottom level suggests crude oil price to be traded higher in the short-term, towards the target of resistance level at 49.65. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the channel.
Resistance level: 49.65, 50.20, 50.90
Support level: 49.00, 48.30
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a downward channel while recently retraced from the 20-moving average line (red). Due to the downward expansion of both MA lines after the formation of death cross, gold price is expected to advance further down, towards the support level of 1260.85.
Resistance level: 1267.40, 1274.00
Support level: 1260.85, 1251.45