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27 April 2017                       Daily Analysis


Trump whistles tax reform, financial market isn’t impressed.

US dollar clings on to some gains on Thursday after US President Donald Trump’s tax plans offered no new surprises, halting its rally while market participants shift their focus towards European Central Bank’s upcoming monetary policy decision. The dollar index was little changed at 98.93, slightly lower from overnight session’s high of 99.33. Trump’s tax reform would cut income tax rate paid by public corporations from 35% to 15% and reduce the top tax rate assessed on pass-through businesses which includes small partnership and sole proprietorships from 39.6% to 15%. “Trump’s tax plan did not go beyond what the media has been covering for the week. Although the plan appears ambitious, its foundations are shaky from revenue perspective,” said senior forex strategist, Junichi Ishikawa. In the European market, the single common currency – euro gained 0.1% to $1.0911, not far from 5½ months high of $1.0951. The central bank is due to announce its policy decision later in the day and market participants eyes whether recent French election results would have any influence on ECB’s stance and approach.


As for commodities, crude oil price was down 0.52% to $49.36 due to a swell in US gasoline inventories due to lagging demand. Otherwise, gold price was down 0.26% to $1,266.05 as global uncertainty subsides while coupled with a strong dollar.


Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event



Today’s Highlight Event

Time                       Market                  Event

Tentative                  JPY                      BoJ Monetary Policy Statement

Tentative                  JPY                      BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)

14:30                     JPY                        BoJ Press Conference

20:30                     EUR                       ECB Press Conference



Today’s Highlight Economy Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
Tentative JPY – BoJ Interest Rate Decision -0.10% -0.10%
19:45 EUR – Deposit Facility Rate -0.40% -0.40%
19:45 EUR – ECB Interest Rate Decision (Apr) 0.00% 0.00%
20:00 EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Apr) 0.2% -0.1%
20:30 USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Mar) 0.5% 0.4%
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 244K 245K
22:00 USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) 5.5% -1.0%




GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the top of the channel. A breakout from this level would signal a change in trend direction to move further upwards. Otherwise, a retrace would suggest GBPUSD to be traded lower within the channel thereafter.


Resistance level: 1.2855, 1.2905

Support level: 1.2810, 1.2770, 1.2700




EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remains traded within an upward channel after rebounding from the bottom level of the channel. A closure above the resistance level of 1.0920 would suggest EURUSD to advance further up, towards the upper level of the channel.


Resistance level: 1.0920, 1.0965

Support level: 1.0875, 1.0830




USDJPY, H1: USDJPY were traded lower following prior retrace from the 20-moving average line (red). As the MACD indicator remains hovered outside of upward momentum, USDJPY is expected to be traded lower in the short-term as technical correction. Long-term trend direction suggests USDJPY to extend its uptrend.


Resistance level: 111.40, 111.75

Support level: 110.95, 110.45




CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price remains traded within a trading range of 49.00 and 50.20. Recent rebound from the bottom level suggests crude oil price to be traded higher in the short-term, towards the target of resistance level at 49.65. Long-term trend direction could only be determined after a successful breakout from either side of the channel.


Resistance level: 49.65, 50.20, 50.90

Support level: 49.00, 48.30




GOLD_, H4: Gold price remains traded within a downward channel while recently retraced from the 20-moving average line (red). Due to the downward expansion of both MA lines after the formation of death cross, gold price is expected to advance further down, towards the support level of 1260.85.


Resistance level: 1267.40, 1274.00

Support level: 1260.85, 1251.45