27 June 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar rebounds while trade war brews.
Greenback extended its recovery from one-week trough on yesterday following the return of risk appetite among investors despite lingering trade tension between United States and China. The dollar index rose 0.41% while last seen around 94.30 during Asian trading hours. Safe-haven currencies such as Japanese Yen and Swiss Franc pared their gains against the dollar after investors continue to bet on US economy that may fare better in an all-out trade war with other countries. According to economist, US assets are deemed to be more secure investment following a trade war outbreak as US economy is less dependent on exports when compared to its peers. However, gains on the greenback were limited following the release of bearish economic data on yesterday. According to Consumer Board, US Consumer Confidence for the month of June fell to 126.4 versus forecast of 127.6. On the other hand, EUR/USD pared its losses by 0.02% to $1.1650 this morning. On yesterday, the single common currencies fell as leaders in the EU summit struggle to reach a common ground over migration issues in the economic zone.
Looking into the commodities market, crude oil price shed 0.08% to $70.75 per barrel albeit limited losses after US call upon other countries to stop purchasing crude oil from Iran or face fresh sanctions from the White House. Such measures may drastically reduce market oil supply as Iran is OPEC’s third largest oil producer which exports more than 2 million barrels per day. Otherwise, gold price fell 0.04% to $1,258.40 a troy ounce as higher prospect for interest rate hike limits its ability to recover substantially.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:30 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
23:00 USD FOMC Member Quarles Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (May) | 0.9% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (May) | -1.3% | 1.1% | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | -5.914M | -2.572M | – |
| 22:30 | CrudeOIL Gasoline Inventories | 3.277M | 1.313M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher lower following prior retracement from the resistance level of 1.3235. MACD histogram which illustrate diminished downward momentum may suggest the pair to experience retracement before extending its major bearish bias.
Resistance level: 1.3235, 1.3290
Support level: 1.3185, 1.3140
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following prior rejection from the resistance level of 1.1710. MACD histogram which illustrate the formation of death cross suggests further bearish bias. However, a close below the support of 1.1645 is required to attain further confirmation.
Resistance level: 1.1710, 1.1820
Support level: 1.1645, 1.1550
USDJPY
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement near the region of 110.25. MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term while overall trending still subject to the formation of descending channel.
Resistance level: 110.25, 110.55
Support level: 109.80, 109.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price rose sharply following prior rebound from the 20-MA line (red). Both MA line and MACD histogram which continues to illustrate bullish signal suggests the commodity price to extend its gains towards the direction of resistance level near 71.15.
Resistance level: 71.15, 72.80
Support level: 69.50, 67.40
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the 20-MA line (red). However, MACD histogram which illustrate some bullish signal may suggest the commodity price to experience retracement before extending its major bearish trending.
Resistance level: 1260.00, 1264.00
Support level: 1255.00, 1250.00