28 February 2018 Daily Analysis
Powell’s optimistic outlook sends dollar higher.
Dollar index was traded higher against its major peers by 0.58% to 90.25 as of writing following hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in Capitol Hill testimony on inflation and economic growth in U.S. Overnight, Powell revealed his optimistic outlook towards current economic conditions in U.S. by noting that the economy was benefiting from global recovery and changes in fiscal policy. Thus, a gradual increase in interest rates should be seen this year which it has bolstered a surge in the Greenback. In addition, Powell’s speech has overshadowed a mixed bag of economic data: CB consumer confidence that rose to 130.8 versus the expected reading of 121.0 while durable goods orders fell 3.7% last month which was much lower than the forecast reading of a 2.4% fall. On the contrary, GBP/USD was down 0.28% to $1.3900 following a deteriorating Brexit negotiations when the Europeans dismissed Prime Minister Theresa May’s latest proposals on a trade deal after Brexit. The UK Prime Minister is to be laying out her post-Brexit vision of relations with the EU in a speech on Friday. Any negative reaction by the Europeans is seen as sending the Pound Sterling to a worse condition.
In the commodities market, crude oil price was down by 0.3% to $62.57 per barrel following an increase in U.S. crude stockpiles by 933,000 barrels to 421.2 million. Otherwise, gold price rose 0.13% to $1317.99 a troy ounce following slight recovery from previous low that was induced by Powell’s optimistic speech.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
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Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 07:50 | JPY – Industrial Production | 2.9% | -4.1% | – |
| 08:00 | NZD – ANZ Business Confidence (Feb) | -37.8 | – | – |
| 09:00 | CNY – Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 51.3 | 51.4 | – |
| 09:00 | CNY – Non – Manufacturing PMI (Feb) | 55.3 | 55.0 | – |
| 15:00 | EUR – Gfk German Consumer Climate | 11.0 | 10.8 | – |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Feb) | -25K | -17K | – |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Rate (Feb) | 5.4% | 5.4% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Feb) | 1.3% | 1.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 2.6% | 2.5% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q4) | 2.4% | 2.4% | – |
| 21:30 | CAD – RMPI (MoM) (Jan) | -0.9% | – | – |
| 22:45 | USD – Chicago PMI (Feb) | 65.7 | 64.1 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Jan) | 0.5% | 0.4% | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – CrudeOIL Inventories | -1.616M | – | – |
| 23:30 | CrudeOIL – Gasoline Inventories | 0.261M | -0.283M | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD was traded in consolidation within a descending triangle. MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its losses further if breakout at 61.8 Fibonacci level is successful.
Resistance level: 1.4350, 1.4990
Support level: 1.3850, 1.3490
EURUSD
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1.2310. Arrangement of bearish candlesticks and MACD histogram that portrays increasing bearish momentum would suggest the pair to continue its downside bias towards the support level at 1.2160.
Resistance level: 1.2310, 1.2390
Support level: 1.2160, 1.2050
USDJPY
USDJPY, Daily: USDJPY was traded higher prior rebound from support level at 106.45. Formation of pin bar candlestick and MACD histogram that portrays increasing bullish momentum would suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level at 108.45.
Resistance level: 108.45, 110.15
Support level: 106.45, 104.25
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower after breaking support level at 63.25 and 200-MA line. MACD histogram that shows increasing bearish momentum would suggest the commodity price to extend its losses towards the next support level at 61.80.
Resistance level: 63.25, 64.55
Support level: 61.80, 60.20
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower prior breaking support level at 1317.90. However, MACD histogram that shows diminishing bearish momentum would suggest the safe-haven asset price to undergo short-term technical correction to trade higher before continuing its bearish bias.
Resistance level: 1317.90, 1327.10
Support level: 1305.85, 1294.15