28 February 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Greenback persevered following Powell’s bullish tilt.
US dollar defends its position against a basket of six major currencies following upbeat remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on yesterday. The dollar index was quoted up 0.14% to 95.97. In the second day of testimony, Powell delivered an upbeat assessment with regards to US economy while adding that the size of balance sheet would be driven by demand for liabilities. Furthermore, Powell announced that they will release the framework for their plan on ending its balance sheet normalization which will result in the end of asset runoff later this year. In addition, the US dollar was further supported following upbeat data with regards to Pending Home Sales for the month of January. However, current upside on the US dollar remains limited following surge in pound sterling. According to reports, European leaders indicated that they are willing to consider delaying the Brexit deadline if a trade deal is not being reached by March 29th. Such initiative would provide more room for both countries in negotiation and reaching a consensus that may reduce economic recessive risk. As of writing, pairing of GBP/USD depreciates by 0.04% to 1.3304.
As for commodities, crude oil price rose more than 1% to $56.98 per barrel. Bullish market cheers after Energy Information Administration reported a large draw in crude oil inventories by 8.647 million barrels last week, its first drop in six weeks. In addition, oil prices received additional bullish support after OPEC defies Trump by reiterating that their group has no intention of easing up production cuts. On the other hand, gold price depreciates by 0.26% to $1,319.95 a troy ounce following a shift in sentiment towards riskier assets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Event
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 21:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Feb) | -0.8% | 0.5% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 216K | 221K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 3.4% | 2.6% | – |
| 22:45 | USD – Chicago PMI (Feb) | 56.7 | 58.1 | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance of 96.00. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above the target of 96.00.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.65
Support level: 95.50, 95.00
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from its lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.3350.
Resistance level: 1.3350, 1.3400
Support level: 1.3235, 1.3170
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.1360. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains, towards the direction of 1.1400.
Resistance level: 1.1400, 1.1440
Support level: 1.1360, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded in a sideways channel following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 110.50.
Resistance level: 111.00, 111.45
Support level: 110.50, 110.00
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior closure below the upward channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term towards the direction of 0.7105.
Resistance level: 0.7170, 0.7225
Support level: 0.7105, 0.7070
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the top level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 0.6820.
Resistance level: 0.6890, 0.6935
Support level: 0.6820, 0.6780
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3175, 1.3220
Support level: 1.3120, 1.3070
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance at 1.0015. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the direction of 0.9995.
Resistance level: 1.0015, 1.0040
Support level: 0.9995, 0.9980
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 57.45. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests its prices to experience short-term technical correction.
Resistance level: 57.45, 58.55
Support level: 56.45, 55.60
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout at 1323.00. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its prices to experience short-term technical correction.
Resistance level: 1323.00, 1329.00
Support level: 1315.00, 1303.00