28 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Waning prospect boosted greenback’s appeal.
Greenback threaded water against other major peers while more central bank around the world opted dovish stance towards deteriorating conditions on global economy. The latest shift came from Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) which bring some surprise to the market by signaling to decrease interest rates due to bearish economic outlook. Among its peers however, US economy remains resilient although some facet portrays slight depreciation in terms of its activity and momentum. Thus, greenback remains favorable among market participants when comparing it with other currencies such as pound sterling and euro. On the other hand, Euro continues its bearish bias after Germany’s 10-year bond yield fell below neutral level with -0.09%, its lowest level in two-and-a-half years. Market prospect upon the region remains bleak following waning economic progression in the European bloc, especially Germany – EU’s largest economic body. In terms of market movement, dollar index stabilizes around 96.34 while pair of EUR/USD traded flat around 1.1252.
In the commodities market, crude oil price extended its losses by 0.32% to $58.98 per barrel during Asian trading session. Oil prices received further bearish pressure following a surprise increase in US crude inventories as reported by Energy Information Administration. Otherwise, gold price ticked down 0.01% to $1,309.90 a troy ounce while its appeal faded due to a shift from safe-haven towards the US dollar market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
04:00 (29th) NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 2.6% | 2.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 221K | 220K | – |
| 21:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Mar) | 0.4% | 0.6% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) | 4.6% | 0.1% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded flat after it breaks above the previous resistance level 96.20 recently. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short-term technical correction towards the support level 96.20.
Resistance level: 96.80, 97.15
Support level: 96.20, 95.65
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remain traded in a sideway channel after it rebounds from its low level above the support level 1.3180. Due to lack of clear signal and momentum from MACD, a further confirmation is required such as breakout above the resistance level 1.3250 or close below the support level 1.3180 before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3250, 1.3350
Support level: 1.3180, 1.3095
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded flat following recent retracement from the resistance level 1.1275. However, MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher as a short-term technical correction towards the resistance level 1.1275.
Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1325
Support level: 1.1215, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level 110.35. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the starting formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 109.60.
Resistance level: 110.35, 110.95
Support level: 109.60, 108.95
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 0.7070. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7120.
Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7155
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 0.6815. MACD which illustrate bullish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its rebound after it breaks above the resistance level 0.6815.
Resistance level: 0.6815, 0.6875
Support level: 0.6770, 0.6725
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following recent retracement from its high level. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend it retracement towards the support level 1.3350.
Resistance level: 1.3460, 1.3570
Support level: 1.3350, 1.3290
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remain traded in a sideway channel. Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the resistance level 0.9965 or below the support level 0.9910 before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9915, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 60.20. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum with the formation of death cross suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 57.90.
Resistance level: 60.20, 63.10
Support level: 57.90, 55.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1308.10. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to experience a technical correction in short term towards the resistance level 1315.80.
Resistance level: 1315.80, 1323.10
Support level: 1308.10, 1299.15