28 December 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar falls amid poor consumer confidence.
Dollar index weakened against a basket of six major currency pairs after the announcement of US CB Consumer Confidence data yesterday. According to US Conference Board, the data which measure consumer confidence level in US and contributes to the country’s inflation came in at 128.1, missing economists’ expectation of 133.7. As the global economy slowdown continues to weigh on sentiment for the dollar, yesterday’s data boosted dollar bears as it indicates possible inflation slowdown in the US which will then lead to lesser rate hikes by US Federal Reserve for next year. However, Initial Jobless Claims data indicated less than expected claims filed by unemployed individuals which indicates improving employment growth. In other news, pair of EUR/USD was seen gaining against both the dollar and pound sterling as uncertainties and negative sentiment surrounding both markets made the euro more appealing to investors. Although the Euro Zone remains pressured by European Central Bank (ECB) dovish statement regarding future economic growth for euro, political uncertainties in the UK and US such as Brexit jitters and temporary US government shutdown caused investors to go against both pound and dollar while providing support for euro bulls. Greenback was down by 0.39% to 96.05 while pair of EUR/USD was up by 0.12% to 1.1445 as of writing.
In the commodities market, crude oil price rebounds by 1.15% to $45.90 during early Asian trading session while market sentiment waits for the delayed inventory report by the API due to the holiday season. As investors are still expecting the cut in oil production by OPEC and other partners to balance the oversupply in the market starting next month, they will first focus on US oil inventory report from API and EIA to gauge the momentum for oil price. On the other hand, gold price inched up by 0.09% to $1275.50 a troy ounce amid weakened dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 21:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Dec) | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| 22:45 | USD – Chicago PMI (Dec) | 66.4 | 62.0 | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Nov) | -2.6% | 0.7% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 96.00. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest dollar to extend its losses towards the support level 95.70.
Resistance level: 96.00, 96.25
Support level: 95.70, 95.25
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD remained trade in an ascending channel while currently testing the resistance level 1.2660. MACD which display diminishing bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully closing its candle above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1.2660, 1.2700
Support level: 1.2610, 1.2555
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 1.1435. MACD which illustrate bullish bias suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.1470.
Resistance level: 1.1470, 1.1520
Support level: 1.1435, 1.1395
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 110.60. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 110.90, 111.35
Support level: 110.60, 110.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 0.7035. MACD which illustrate starting bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7100
Support level: 0.7035, 0.7000
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.6700. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.6745.
Resistance level: 0.6745, 0.6785
Support level: 0.6700, 0.6655
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.3610. MACD which display bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses after a breakout below the support level.
Resistance level: 1.3645, 1.3680
Support level: 1.3610, 1.3565
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF was traded lower while currently testing near the support level at 0.9835. MACD which display ongoing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breaking below the support level.
Resistance level: 0.9875, 0.9920
Support level: 0.9835, 0.9785
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound near the support level 45.20. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 47.00.
Resistance level: 47.00, 48.50
Support level: 45.20, 43.55
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level 1278.00. MACD which display starting bullish signal and the formation of golden cross suggest gold to extend its gains after successfully breaking above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 1278.00, 1284.00
Support level: 1273.50, 1267.00