29 March 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Bears overtook New Zealand dollar.
New Zealand dollar extended its losses since the start of Asian trading session following mixed signal delivered by Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr. In an event hosted by the central bank, Orr stated that the bank is switching from neutral to easing bias following recessive risks in the market. Prior, RBNZ stunned the market after signaling to initiate a rate cut in the future rather than keeping it unchanged. RBNZ stated that they will remain focused upon inflation and employment objective while pursuing to maintain a stable inflationary level and financial market. Likewise, the currency received further bearish pressure after market participants flock to other assets as US and China restart their much-awaited trade negotiation which may bring volatility to the currency. In the US, greenback begins to retrace from its prior high levels following dovish outlook towards its economic progression. Thus far, US economic growth slowed down during the end of 2018, falling below Trump’s administration forecast. Such reading comes hand-in-hand with other major markets in the world which may brew higher concern towards global economic slowdown for the year 2019. As of writing, pair of NZD/USD depreciate by 0.10% to 0.6785 while the dollar index ticked down 0.01% to 96.72.
As for commodities, crude oil price rose 0.17% to $59.38 per barrel during mid-Asian session. Oil prices set for its biggest first-quarter gain since 2009 following OPEC-led supply cuts and US sanction against oil producing country such as Iran and Venezuela. Otherwise, gold price depreciates by 0.07% to $1,289.46 a troy ounce as market participants shifts their focus towards other emerging markets.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative (30th) GBP UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change | -21K | -10K | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 1.3% | 1.3% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 1.5% | – | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Jan) | -0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar) | 97.8 | 97.8 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Feb) | 607K | 620K | – |
| 01:00 (30th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 824 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level 96.80. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest the dollar to experience a technical correction in short term towards the support level 96.20.
Resistance level: 96.80, 97.15
Support level: 96.20, 95.65
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3070. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded higher as a short term technical correction back towards the resistance level 1.3180.
Resistance level: 1.3180, 1.3250
Support level: 1.3070, 1.2975
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 1.1215. However, MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum with the starting formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term as a technical correction towards the resistance level 1.1275.
Resistance level: 1.1275, 1.1325
Support level: 1.1215, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 110.35. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 110.95.
Resistance level: 110.95, 111.75
Support level: 110.35, 109.60
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was remain traded in a sideway channel following recent rebound from the support level 0.7070. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 0.7120.
Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7155
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 0.6770. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to experience a short term technical correction towards the resistance level 0.6815.
Resistance level: 0.6815, 0.6875
Support level: 0.6770, 0.6725
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following recent rebound from MA line 20 (Red). However, due to lack of clear signal and momentum from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the resistance level 1.3460 or below the support level 1.3350 before entering the market.
Resistance level: 1.3460, 1.3570
Support level: 1.3350, 1.3295
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF remain traded in a sideway channel. Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear such as breakout above the resistance level 0.9965 or below the support level 0.9910 before entering the market.
Resistance level: 0.9965, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9915, 0.9855
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 58.05. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards resistance level 60.20.
Resistance level: 60.20, 63.10
Support level: 57.90, 55.60
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1289.35. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its losses after it successfully breaks below the support level 1289.35.
Resistance level: 1299.15, 1308.10
Support level: 1289.35, 1282.40