29 March 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar strong despite poor data, supported by Brexit deadlock.
Greenback measuring against a basket of six major currency pairs was traded lower by 0.03% to 96.71 at early Asian trading session after breaking to its 2-week high despite poor data in the US. US GDP was growing slower at 2.2% as compared to its forecasted value of 2.4% while Pending Home Sales data came in at -1.0%, much lower compared to the forecasted reading of 0.1%. As recent dovish statement from Fed and economy outlook for the US are biased to signs of recession, the poor data did little changes to the market sentiment as market participants focus mainly on Brexit developments. As tension weighs on the pound market, investors are currently focusing on today’s key Brexit vote where a successful vote will allow the UK to leave the European Union by 22nd May. However, if UK parliament rejects Theresa May’s Brexit deal for the third time, UK will have to decide then whether to crash out of the EU without a deal on 12th April or request for a longer delay but remains in the EU while also participating in the next European Union general elections. Growing tensions in Brexit caused a large sell-off in the pound yesterday, however the pair of GBP/USD was able to pair part of its losses by 0.14% to 1.3060.
In the commodities market, crude oil price retraced by 0.03% to $59.44 per barrel after extending its gains throughout yesterday amid overall positive sentiment in the market. Recent news reported that US are widening their sanctions on Venezuela oil export, instructing oil traders around the world to further cutting their oil trades with Venezuela or faces sanction themselves. Besides that, continuous effort of production cut from OPEC and its allies continues to provide support for oil prices. Likewise, gold price rose 0.12% to $1291.65 a troy ounce after facing a large sell-off yesterday as Brexit deadlock made dollar’s appeal as a strong safe haven asset.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
Tentative (30th) GBP UK Parliament vote on Brexit deal
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change | -21K | -10K | – |
| 17:30 | GBP – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) | 1.3% | 1.3% | – |
| 18:00 | EUR – CPI (YoY) (Mar) | 1.5% | – | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Jan) | -0.1% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Mar) | 97.8 | 97.8 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – New Home Sales (Feb) | 607K | 620K | – |
| 01:00 (30th) | CrudeOIL – US Baker Hughes Oil Rig Count | 824 | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 96.80. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggest index to extend its losses toward the support level at 96.40.
Resistance level: 96.80, 97.20
Support level: 96.40, 96.15
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level 1.3055. MACD which display bearish bias momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout the support level at 1.3055.
Resistance level: 1.3145, 1.3215
Support level: 1.3055, 1.2965
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.1220. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1280
Resistance level: 1.1280, 1.1320
Support level: 1.1220, 1.1180
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 110.85. MACD which display bullish signals suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout the resistance level 110.85.
Resistance level: 110.85, 111.40
Support level: 110.35, 109.70
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 0.7070. MACD which display diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.7120.
Resistance level: 0.7120, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7070, 0.7005
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower while currently testing near the support level of 0.6775. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggest the pair to undergo technical correction toward the resistance level at 0.6820.
Resistance level: 0.6820, 0.6860
Support level: 0.6775, 0.6730
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.3440. Due to lack of clear signal from MACD, it is suggested to wait until further signal appear before entering market.
Resistance level: 1.3440, 1.3490
Support level: 1.3375, 1.3340
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.9960. MACD which display diminishing bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 0.9930.
Resistance level: 0.9960, 0.9985
Support level: 0.9930, 0.9895
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level at 59.05. MACD which display bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the commodity to extend its gains towards the resistance level 59.70.
Resistance level: 59.70, 60.25
Support level: 59.05, 58.25
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior breakout below the previous support level at 1292.30. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest gold to extend its losses toward the support level at 1283.70.
Resistance level: 1292.30, 1300.25
Support level: 1283.70, 1277.05