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29 March 2023                   Afternoon Session Analysis

 

 

The Aussie softened amid inflation slowdown in Australia.

The Australian dollar, which is the most popular trade by global investors, softened amid the inflation slow in Australia. Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 6.8% YoY, lower than the 7.1% market consensus and prior reading of 7.4%. Australia’s annual inflation slowed in Feb, led by small rises in fuel and housing, adding to evidence that the worst price increases have passed. Given the last slump in inflation, adding the odd of another 0.25% rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia become unwelcome, especially after the downbeat Australian retail sales in February. The recent data also showed that consumer spending and economic activity are like to slow down as the effects of higher interest began to be felt by the economy. According to the RBA rate tracker, the market expectations for interest rates maintained at the next RBA meeting increased from 91% to 95%. However, the inflation reading still remained well above the RBA’s target range of 2-3% which the central bank will likely only achieve in the mid of 2025. The pair of AUD/USD lost more than 2% after the data was released by the Australian Statistician. As of writing, the AUD/USD slipped -0.48% to $0.6677.

In the commodity market, the crude oil price traded higher by 0.79% to $73.77 per barrel as of writing following the market concerns on Kurdistan crude oil export halted and US API crude oil inventory in deficit. In addition, the gold price dipped by -0.54 % to $ 1979.80 per troy ounce as of writing over market risk appetite has improved.

 

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
22:00 USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Feb) 8.1% -2.3%
22:30 CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories 1.117M 0.092M

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following a prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated diminishing bearish momentum suggests the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 103.00.

 

Resistance level: 103.00, 104.45

Support level: 101.70, 100.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following a rebound from the support level at 1.2300. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower as a technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1.2445, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following a prior rebound from the support level at 1.0790. MACD which illustrated bullish momentum suggests the pair to be extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.0930.

 

Resistance level: 1.0930, 1.1070

Support level: 1.0790, 1.0635

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded higher following a prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 132.30.

 

Resistance level: 132.30, 134.60

Support level: 130.25, 128.00

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower while currently testing for the support level at 0.6685. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses if successfully break below the support level.

 

Resistance level, 0.6775, 0.6870

Support level: 0.6685, 0.6605

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing for the resistance level at 0.6265. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains if successfully break above the resistance level.

 

Resistance level: 0.6265, 0.6320

Support level: 0.6195, 0.6120

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher while currently testing for the resistance level at 1.3600. However, MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggests the pair to undergo technical correction in the short term.

 

Resistance level: 1.3600, 1.3685

Support level: 1.3515, 1.3420

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following a prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 0.9180. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend it gains toward the resistance level at 0.9285.

 

Resistance level: 0.9285, 0.9390

Support level: 0.9180, 0.9090

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following a prior breakout above the previous resistance level at 73.20. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggests the commodity to traded lower as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 76.05, 78.70

Support level: 73.20, 70.65

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following a prior retracement from the higher level. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggests the commodity to traded higher as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 1985.50, 2009.10

Support level: 1954.90, 1926.70