29 April 2019 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar consolidates above 97.60 while awaits further sentiment.
Dollar index which measures it value against a basket of six major currencies was down by 0.05% to 97.65 after last week release of mixed data. Although dollar was supported by higher than expected GDP reading which possibly indicates strong growth, however the fall in personal consumption expenditures spiraled worries in the market that the country’s inflation might be falling. For this week, the dollar market is expected to undergo large fluctuations amid FOMC rate statement and its conference, Core PCE index data as well as Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) and Average Hourly Earnings. Investors will look at these various data to further gauge the long-term trend for dollar. Besides that, top-level trade talks are also expected this week where US President Donald Trump stated that he is ready to meet Chinese Premier Xi Jinping at the White House and hope to finalize a deal during its meeting. In the events that the war between two economic powerhouses could reach an end, tariffs would be lifted and both the country can strongly benefit in terms of economy as well as politics. In other news, China’s major trading partner Australia will also receive support and the Aussie dollar may rise. The pair of AUD/USD was up by 0.26% to 0.7055 as of writing.
In the commodities market, crude oil price pared part of its losses by 0.14% to $62.91 per barrel. Oil prices continues to be pressured by Trump’s tweet which urged OPEC to lower oil prices and increase production. Besides that, concerns from Russia ending its glut cut deal with OPEC during OPEC’s June meeting further worsen oil sentiment. Otherwise, gold price edged lower by 0.06% to $1,285.00 a troy ounce while market participants wait for further catalyst in the market.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day JPY Showa Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:10 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb) | 1.8% | 1.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar) | – | 1.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Feb) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar) | – | 0.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Mar) | 0.2% | 0.4% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded lower while currently testing near the support level 97.55. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal with the formation of death cross suggest the dollar to extend its losses after it breaks below the support level.
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.50
Support level: 97.55, 97.05
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level 1.2915. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 1.2960.
Resistance level: 1.2960, 1.3020
Support level: 1.2915, 1.2865
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following recent rebound from the support level 1.1115. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum signal with the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its rebound towards the resistance level 1.1180.
Resistance level: 1.1180, 1.1215
Support level: 1.1115, 1.1080
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded flat following recent retracement from the resistance level 111.80. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish bias signal suggest the pair to be traded higher in short term towards the resistance level 111.80
Resistance level: 111.80, 112.10
Support level: 111.45, 110.90
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above the previous resistance level 0.7050. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish momentum signal suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.7085.
Resistance level: 0.7085, 0.7130
Support level: 0.7050, 0.7000
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout above previous resistance level 0.6675. MACD which display persistent bullish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains towards the resistance level 0.6720.
Resistance level: 0.6720, 0.6770
Support level: 0.6675, 0.6640
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior breakout below previous support level 1.3465. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish bias signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.3430.
Resistance level: 1.3465, 1.3520
Support level: 1.3430, 1.3395
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following recent breakout below the previous support level 1.0200. MACD which illustrate persistent bearish signal suggest the pair to extend its losses towards the support level 1.0160.
Resistance level: 1.0200, 1.0230
Support level: 1.0160, 1.0115
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded flat while currently testing near the resistance level 63.05. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish signal suggest the commodity to be traded higher after it breaks above the resistance level.
Resistance level: 63.05, 64.55
Support level: 61.75, 60.40
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level 1287.00. MACD which illustrate bearish bias signal suggest the commodity to extend its retracement towards the support level 1280.45.
Resistance level: 1287.00, 1296.40
Support level: 1280.45, 1271.80