29 April 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Inflation slacked; greenback dragged.
US dollar depreciates from its prior high levels on last Friday after better-than-expected US growth data was offset by slowing inflation in the United States. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.02% to 97.73 against a basket of six major peers. According to US Commerce Department, US Gross Domestic Product for the first quarter came in at 3.2%, exceeding economist forecast for an increase of only 2.0%. The seemingly high reading for first quarter is due to higher composition of growth in private inventory investment and foreign trade. However, a slowdown in personal consumption which makes up two-third of US economic activity may likely to drag on for second quarter. Likewise, overall optimism within the market has dialed down after Federal Reserve preferred inflation measure, the PCE Price Index slowed down to 1.3% for the month of March, significantly lower than previous month’s reading of 1.8%. A slowdown in inflation has raised expectation that the Fed may cut rates within this year in order to provide further support upon the economy. Against other major peers, GBP/USD ticked up 0.01% to 1.2919 while EUR/USD rose 0.02% to 1.1150.
In the commodities market, crude oil price depreciates by 0.02% to $62.76 per barrel. Oil prices tumbled more than 1% last Friday after US President Donald Trump pressed OPEC to cut oil prices and supply. Likewise, lower inflation growth in the US has also bring some effect towards its prices as it indicates possible slowdown in economic activity. Otherwise, gold price tacks up 0.01% to $1,286.16 a troy ounce due to weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day JPY Showa Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:10 GBP BoE Gov Carney Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Feb) | 1.8% | 1.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (YoY) (Mar) | – | 1.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Feb) | 0.1% | 0.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar) | – | 0.7% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Mar) | 0.2% | 0.4% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from the higher levels. MACD which shows diminishing upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 98.60, 100.15
Support level: 97.65, 96.85
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level near 1.2900. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3000, 1.3120
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2805
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which has formed a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term after breaking the resistance of 1.1155.
Resistance level: 1.1155, 1.1200
Support level: 1.1100, 1.1030
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior breakout from the support of 111.75. However, MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.20
Support level: 111.45, 111.00
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6990. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7145
Support level: 0.6990, 0.6935
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near 0.6670. MACD which illustrate persistent bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the resistance near 0.6670.
Resistance level: 0.6670, 0.6695
Support level: 0.6630, 0.6580
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior closure below 1.3485. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 1.3435.
Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3400
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel while currently testing at the lower level. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1.0220, 1.0265
Support level: 1.0190, 1.0170
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price plunged sharply after breaking the bottom level of upward channel. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests its prices to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 63.15, 63.70
Support level: 61.60, 59.65
GOLD_, H4: Gold price extended its gains while currently testing near the resistance of 1285.80. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to be traded higher after closing above 1285.80.
Resistance level: 1285.80, 1295.65
Support level: 1275.30, 1267.00