29 June 2017 Daily Analysis
Governors blow hawkish whistle, greenback slumps.
US dollar extended its losses against a basket of six major peers following a surge in both pound sterling and Canadian dollar due to hawkish signals given by the governors of both respective central banks. The dollar index ticked down 0.02% and last seen at 95.65 during Asian trading hours. Bullish comments from both central bank governors with regards to future monetary policy stance weighed on the dollar for second day as traders speculated that both Bank of England and Bank of Canada may adopt tighter policy soon. Pound sterling surged to a post-election high of $1.2973, skyrocketed more than 1% after BoE Governor Mark Carney reversed his recent assertion of not needing to raise interest rates while hinting that “some removal of monetary policy is likely to become necessary”. Likewise, the pairing of USD/CAD fell to a four-month low at C$1.3009 after BoC Governor Stephen Poloz adopted a similar tone concerning monetary policy while reiterating that the central bank may consider hiking their benchmark rates soon as rate cuts from 2015 has done their “job”. Meanwhile, the greenback received further selling pressure following US Senate’s decision to delay a vote on health-care bill amendments to replace Obamacare, which raises doubts on Trump administration’s ability to carry out his pro-growth economic measures.
Looking into commodities, crude oil price 0.29% to $44.87 after a report showed that US crude production declined last week due to temporary factors which will likely be reversed in the coming weeks. On the other hand, gold price rose 0.16% to $1,250.03 due to a slump in the greenback as US political uncertainty resurfaced.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 1.2% | 1.2% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 241K | 240K | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, Daily: GBPUSD has recently closed above the 60-moving average line (green) while currently testing near the resistance level of 1.2970. MACD histogram which illustrates upward signal suggests GBPUSD to advance further up after breaking the resistance level at 1.2970.
Resistance level: 1.2970, 1.3050
Support level: 1.2825, 1.2690
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD were traded in an uptrend following prior formation of golden cross by both moving average line. A successful closure above the resistance level of 1.1410 would suggest EURUSD to extend its uptrend towards the next target at 1.1445.
Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1445
Support level: 1.1370, 1.1325
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY were traded higher following prior rebound from the support level of 111.80. However, as the MACD indicator begins to hover outside of upward momentum, USDJPY may experience brief technical correction and to be traded lower in short-term. Otherwise, long-term trend direction suggests USDJPY to move further upwards after breaking the resistance level at 112.45.
Resistance level: 112.45, 113.05
Support level: 111.80, 111.15
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price extended its gains following prior formation of golden cross by both MA lines. It is expected to extend its upward momentum after successfully breaking the resistance level at 45.20.
Resistance level: 45.20, 46.70
Support level: 44.20, 43.00
GOLD
GOLD_, H4: Gold price seesawed near the downward trendline following prior retracement. A successful breakthrough from the downward trendline would signal a change in trend direction to move further upwards thereafter and next target would be at 1258.90.
Resistance level: 1250.10, 1258.90
Support level: 1243.00, 1235.95