29 October 2018 Afternoon Session Analysis
Dollar rebound from Friday losses.
US dollar managed to recover part of its losses against a basket of its major currencies on Monday after tumbling last Friday due to market dissatisfaction towards US GDP data. Last Friday, although the United States GDP data showed that the overall economic growth slowed less than expected with 3.5% versus forecast of 3.3%. However, economist remained dissatisfied with the results as it indicates slower economic pace ahead. Nevertheless, rising trade tension between US and China while US Federal Reserve which continues its plan to tighten monetary policy has cushioned the greenback as one of the safe haven assets. As of writing, the dollar index rose 0.12% to 96.20. On the other hand, the pair of GBP/USD was traded flat while market participants keep an eye on the latest annual speech from the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer later today. Traders are tensing ahead of the UK’s budgetary outlook in case Exchequer Chancellor Phillip Hammond plays too much defensive cards and planned funding solutions in the face of a potential no-deal Brexit. As of writing, sterling pound rose 0.01% to 1.2830 against U.S Dollar.
On the commodities market, crude oil price hover at $67.50 per barrel while investor eye on the imminent US sanctions against Iran which will take into effect this coming Sunday. Next, gold price dipped 0.03% to $1233.05 per troy ounce amid dollar’s recovery.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
20:30 GBP Autumn Budget
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep) | 0.0% | 0.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Sep) | 0.3% | 0.4% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Sep) | 0.3% | 0.4% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior breakout from the resistance level at 96.15. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum suggest the index to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 96.30.
Resistance level: 96.30, 96.45
Support level: 96.15, 95.95
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.2775. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to be traded higher toward the resistance level at 1.2280.
Resistance level: 1.2880, 1.2955
Support level: 1.2775, 1.2690
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1.1410. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.1385.
Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1430
Support level: 1.1385, 1.1360
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 111.75. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 112.05.
Resistance level: 112.05, 112.20
Support level: 111.80, 111.40
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.7100. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains after a successful breakout from 0.7100.
Resistance level: 0.7100, 0.7145
Support level: 0.7065, 0.7045
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior breakout from the previous resistance level at 0.6535. MACD which illustrate bullish momentum and the formation of golden cross suggest the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 0.6560.
Resistance level: 0.6560, 0.6590
Support level: 0.6535, 0.6510
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher prior following rebound from the support level at 1.3070. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its gains after successfully breakout from 1.3110.
Resistance level: 1.3110, 1.3145
Support level: 1.3070, 1.2995
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher while currently testing near the resistance level at 0.9980. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum and the formation of death cross suggest the pair to be traded lower toward the support level at 0.9970.
Resistance level: 1.0010, 1.0050
Support level: 0.9970, 0.9925
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 67.70. MACD which illustrate diminishing of bullish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower toward the support level at 66.10.
Resistance level: 67.70, 68.50
Support level: 66.10, 64.20
GOLD_, H1: Gold was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 1234.85. MACD which illustrate bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 1231.10.
Resistance level: 1234.85, 1237.50
Support level: 1231.10, 1227.55
Highlighted economy data and events for the week: October 29 – November 2
| Monday, October 29 |
Data USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Sep) USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Sep) USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Sep) Events GBP – Autumn Budget
|
| Tuesday, October 30 |
Data EUR – German Unemployment Change (Oct) EUR – GDP (QoQ) EUR – GDP (YoY) USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Oct)
Events N/A |
| Wednesday, October 31 |
Data AUD – CPI (QoQ) (Q3) CNY – Manufacturing PMI (Oct) EUR – CPI (YoY) (Oct) USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Oct) CAD – GDP (MoM) (Aug) CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories
Events CAD – BoC Gov Poloz Speaks JPY – BoJ Press Conference
|
| Thursday, November 1 |
Data CNY – Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Oct) GBP – Manufacturing PMI (Oct) GBP – BoE Interest Rate Decision (Nov) USD – ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
Events CAD – BoC Gov Poloz Speaks GBP – BoE Inflation Report
|
|
Friday, November 2
|
Data AUD – Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep) EUR – German Manufacturing PMI (Oct) GBP – Construction PMI (Oct) USD – Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct) USD – Unemployment Rate (Oct) CAD – Employment Change (Oct)
Events N/A
|