29 November 2018 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar trips as Powell deliver doves.
Greenback swooped lower on yesterday after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivers dovish signal on top of lower-than-expected economic growth data for the third quarter. According to Powell, current levels of interest rates were “just below” the neutral level, suggesting that the neutral rate is somewhere in between 2.5% to 3.5%. Current interest rates stand at 2% to 2.25% range. His dovishness has latched into the market which are previously optimistic towards a more aggressive stance towards interest rate hike in the future. In addition, the greenback suffered from further losses following the release of downbeat economic growth data for the third quarter. According to US Bureau of Economic Analysis, Gross Domestic Product came in at only 3.5%, missing economist forecast for a reading of 3.6%. The data has accompanied a slew of recent bearish economic releases, pointing towards an imminent economic cooldown in the near future. On the other hand, pound sterling rose sharply on yesterday following slightly hawkish tone from Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney. According to Carney, a disorderly Brexit is seen to be unlikely while UK financial system remains “resilient” to any potential shock which includes a no-deal Brexit. As of writing, the dollar index was down 0.55% to 96.71 while pair of GBP/USD ticked up 0.02% to 1.2825.
In the commodities market, crude oil price slumped 3.36% to $50.52 per barrel. Oil prices retreat towards the $50 threshold after EIA reported that US crude oil stockpiles rose for 10th consecutive week by 3.58 million barrels last week. Otherwise, gold price tacks up 0.02% to $1,220.94 a troy ounce following broader weakness on the greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
16:00 EUR ECB President Draghi Speaks
03:00 (30th) USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 16:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Nov) | -11K | -10K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 224K | 221K | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Oct) | 0.2% | 0.2% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct) | 0.4% | 0.4% | – |
| 21:30 | USD – Personal Income (MoM) (Oct) | 0.2% | 0.4% | – |
| 23:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct) | 0.5% | 0.8% | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H1: Dollar index was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the index to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 97.00.
Resistance level: 97.00, 97.40
Support level: 96.60, 96.20
GBPUSD, H1: GBPUSD was traded lower following prior retrace from the threshold of 1.2835. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.2835, 1.2895
Support level: 1.2770, 1.2690
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD was traded lower while currently testing at the support level of 1.1360. MACD which shows diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support of 1.1360.
Resistance level: 1.1410, 1.1450
Support level: 1.1360, 1.1310
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher levels. MACD which begins to form a death cross signal suggests the pair to extend its losses, towards the direction of 113.30.
Resistance level: 113.70, 113.85
Support level: 113.30, 112.95
AUDUSD, H1: AUDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the upper level. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 0.7300, 0.7340
Support level: 0.7265, 0.7215
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance level at 0.6890. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses in short-term, towards the direction of 0.6830.
Resistance level: 0.6890, 0.6940
Support level: 0.6830, 0.6710
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above the 60-MA line (green).
Resistance level: 1.3320, 1.3385
Support level: 1.3255, 1.3210
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded lower following prior breakout from the upward channel. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the threshold of 0.9930.
Resistance level: 0.9955, 1.0000
Support level: 0.9930, 0.9905
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests its prices to extend its gains in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 52.00, 53.90
Support level: 49.50, 47.50
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the lower levels. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to move further upwards after breaking the downward trendline.
Resistance level: 1228.00, 1237.25
Support level: 1220.00, 1215.95