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30 March 2023                   Afternoon Session Analysis

 

BoE’s Mann hawkish statement limited sterling’s losses.

The pound sterling, the most traded currency among global investors, fell yesterday, but hawkish statements from Bank of England Catherine Mann limited the losses. In the communique, Mann mentioned that the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse was due to inadequate management and poor risk monitoring. The collapse was not caused by monetary policy, and British banks remain resilient. This statement gave investors a boost of confidence while urging the pound higher. At the same time, the fall in energy prices will ease the headline inflation toward the BoE 2% inflation target, but increasing in core goods and services will bring the core CPI to buoyed at a high level, comments from Mann. To bring inflation back to the Bank of England’s target, Mann has given a clear decision that, she is going to vote for a 25-basis point rate hike at the next monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting. The recent economic data showed unexpected growth in the UK economy, which increased the odds that the BoE will continue to hike the rate in the next MPC meeting. As of writing, the GBP/USD was traded higher by 0.05% to $1.2319.

In the commodity market, the crude oil price edged up by 0.15% to $73.08 per barrel while investors continued to eye on the upcoming German inflation data. On the other hand, the gold price appreciated by 0.02% to $1984.65 per troy ounce following the prior drop as the risk appetite eased.

 

Today’s Holiday Market Close

Time                       Market                  Event

N/A

 

Today’s Highlight Events

Time                       Market                  Event

Tentative                 GBP                      BOE Inflation Letter

 

Today’s Highlight Economic Data

Time Nation & Data Previous Forecast Actual
20:00 EUR – German CPI (YoY) (Mar) 8.70% 7.30%
20:30 USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 2.70% 2.70%
20:30 USD – Initial Jobless Claims 191K 196K

 

 

 

Technical Analysis

DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher following a prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated increasing bullish momentum suggests the index to extend it gains toward the resistance level at 103.00

 

Resistance level: 103.00, 104.45

Support level: 101.70, 100.35

 

GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2300. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses is successfully breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1.2445, 1.2590

Support level: 1.2300, 1.2145

 

EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded lower following a prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to be extend its losses toward the support level at 1.0790.

 

Resistance level: 1.0930, 1.1070

Support level: 1.0790, 1.0635

 

USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower following a prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 132.30.

 

Resistance level: 134.55, 136.30

Support level: 132.30, 130.25

 

AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 0.6685. MACD which illustrated decreasing bullish momentum suggests the pair extended its losses toward the support level at 0.6600.

 

Resistance level: 0.6775, 0.6910

Support level: 0.6600, 0.6525

 

NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded lower following a prior retracement from the support level at 0.6195. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to extend its losses.

 

Resistance level: 0.6265, 0.6320

Support level: 0.6195, 0.6120

 

USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded higher following a prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.3600.

 

Resistance level: 1.3600, 1.3685

Support level: 1.3515, 1.3420

 

USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following a prior rebound from the support level at 0.9180. However, MACD which illustrated decreasing bearish momentum suggest the pair to be traded lower as technical correction.

 

Resistance level: 0.9285, 0.9390

Support level: 0.9180, 0.9090

 

 

CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded lower following a prior breakout below the previous support level at 73.20. MACD which illustrated increasing bearish momentum suggests the commodity to extend its losses toward the support level at 70.65

 

Resistance level: 73.20, 76.05

Support level: 70.65, 68.30

 

GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower while currently testing for the support level at 1954.90. MACD which illustrated bearish momentum suggest the commodity to extend its losses if successfully breaks below the support level.

 

Resistance level: 1985.50, 2009.10

Support level: 1954.90, 1926.70