30 April 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Inflation dulls, Fed to wait-and-see?
US dollar extended its losses on yesterday as recent data shows diminishing pace of US inflationary pressure. As of writing, the dollar index was quoted down 0.16% to 97.52 during Asian trading session. According to US Bureau of Economic Analysis, its Core PCE Price Index for the month of March slowed down to 1.6%, missing economist forecast for a rise of 1.7%. The data has further cemented Fed’s course to keep interest rate unchanged while continues to scrutinize future economic data before initiating a change in monetary policy stance. However, losses on the greenback were somehow limited after Consumer Spending (which accounts for more than two-third of US economic activity) rose 0.9% last month, beating economist forecast of 0.7%. On the other hand, pair of GBP/USD ticked up 0.02% to 1.2931. Sterling received some bullish bids on yesterday amid reports of cross-party talks between US lawmaker with regards to Brexit has been “productive” and constructive”. Positive development with regards to Brexit has bring in some optimism towards the UK market.
As for commodities, crude oil price advanced up by 0.05% to $63.49 per barrel. Oil price managed to recovered some losses on yesterday as US sanction against Iran will be enforced fully on May 2nd, cutting off supplies from OPEC’s No. 4 producer. On the other hand, gold price ticks up 0.04% to $1,280.29 a troy ounce following weaker greenback.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day JPY Holiday
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
23:00 CAD BoC Gov Poloz Speaks
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 14:00 | EUR – GfK German Consumer Climate (May) | 10.4 | 10.3 | – |
| 15:55 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (Apr) | -7K | -6K | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – GDP (YoY) | 1.1% | 1.1% | – |
| 17:00 | EUR – Unemployment Rate (Mar) | 7.8% | 7.8% | – |
| 20:00 | EUR – German CPI (MoM) (Apr) | 0.4% | 0.5% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – GDP (MoM) (Feb) | 0.3% | 0.1% | – |
| 22:00 | USD – CB Consumer Confidence (Apr) | 124.1 | 126.0 | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Mar) | -1.0% | 1.1% | – |
| 04:30
(1st) |
CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | 6.900M | – | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, Daily: Dollar index was traded lower following prior retrace from its prior high. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the index to be traded lower in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 97.65, 98.60
Support level: 96.85, 95.90
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded higher while currently testing at the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate diminished upward momentum suggests the pair to be traded lower following a successful retracement from the trendline.
Resistance level: 1.3000, 1.3120
Support level: 1.2900, 1.2805
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher while currently testing near the downward trendline. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains after breaking the trendline.
Resistance level: 1.1200, 1.1250
Support level: 1.1155, 1.1100
USDJPY, H1: USDJPY remains traded within an ascending channel while currently testing at the lower level. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the bottom level.
Resistance level: 111.75, 112.00
Support level: 111.45, 111.30
AUDUSD, Daily: AUDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support of 0.6990. MACD which illustrate diminishing downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains in short-term, towards the direction of 0.7070.
Resistance level: 0.7070, 0.7145
Support level: 0.6990, 0.6935
NZDUSD, H1: NZDUSD was traded flat while currently testing near the resistance of 0.6670. MACD which illustrate diminished downward momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains after closing above 0.6670.
Resistance level: 0.6670, 0.6695
Support level: 0.6630, 0.6580
USDCAD, H1: USDCAD remains traded within a descending channel following prior rebound from the lower level. MACD which begins to form a bullish signal suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction.
Resistance level: 1.3485, 1.3530
Support level: 1.3435, 1.3400
USDCHF, H1: USDCHF remains traded within a sideways channel following prior rebound from the bottom level. MACD which illustrate diminished bearish momentum suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term, towards the direction of 1.0225.
Resistance level: 1.0225, 1.0265
Support level: 1.0190, 1.0170
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 63.70. MACD which illustrate diminished bullish momentum suggests its prices to be traded lower, towards the direction of 63.15.
Resistance level: 63.70, 64.65
Support level: 63.15, 61.60
GOLD_, H1: Gold price was traded higher following prior rebound from the upward trendline. MACD which begins to form a golden cross signal suggests its prices to be traded higher after closing above the 20-MA line (red).
Resistance level: 1285.80, 1295.65
Support level: 1275.30, 1267.00