30 May 2018 Daily Analysis
Dollar stands tall as EU-risk demoralize investors.
Greenback extended gains to fresh 6-months high against its major peers following high volume of selloff explicitly on the Euro over the backdrop of rising political uncertainty. During the Asian trading session, the dollar index rose 0.46% while last quotes around 94.75. Prior, Italy faces imminent calls for election after two anti-establishment party abandoned their plans to form a coalition government. Snap election could deliver a blow to the EU as the outcome would have chances to form a Eurosceptic government that could challenge Italy’s membership in the integrated economic region. As such, investors dialed down their volume of investment’s in the EU particularly Italian’s assets while flocking towards assets which is denominated in the US dollar. However, gains on the greenback remained capped after Conference Board revealed that consumer confidence in the US rose to only 128.0 versus forecast of 128.2 for the month of May. For the time being, investors will place their attention on major economic releases from the US such as ADP, PCE and NFP report to gauge its economic growth momentum and future monetary policy stance.
Peering into the commodities market, crude oil price ticked down 0.06% to $66.78 during early Asian trading session as investors fret over OPEC’s pledge to increase production to offset imminent supply shortage from Venezuela and Iran. On the contrary, gold price extended gains by 0.12% to $1,300.07 a troy ounce following mild risk aversion in the market due to political risk in the EU region.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
09:10 NZD RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
22:00 CAD BoC Rate Statement
Today’s Highlight Economy Data
| Time | Nation & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 09:30 | AUD – Building Approvals (MoM) (Apr) | 2.6% | -3.0% | – |
| 14:00 | EUR – German Retail Sales (MoM) (Apr) | -0.6% | 0.7% | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – German Unemployment Change (May) | -7K | -10K | – |
| 16:00 | EUR – German Unemployment Rate (May) | 5.3% | 5.3% | – |
| 20:15 | USD – ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (May) | 204K | 190K | – |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 2.35 | 2.3% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q1) | 2.0% | 2.0% | – |
| 20:30 | CAD – RMPI (MoM) (Apr) | 2.1% | – | – |
| 22:00 | CAD – BoC Interest Rate Decision | 1.25% | 1.25% | – |
| 04:30 | CrudeOIL – API Weekly Crude Oil Stock | -1.300M | – | – |
GBPUSD
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD extended its losses following prior breakout from the support level at 1.3300. However, MACD histogram which illustrate diminishing downward momentum may suggests the pair to be traded higher in short-term as technical correction before continuing its major bearish bias thereafter.
Resistance level: 1.3300, 1.3400
Support level: 1.3220, 1.3140
EURUSD
EURUSD, H1: EURUSD remained traded within a mini descending wedge following prior retracement from the upper level. Recent formation of retrace signal prior to the overbought region suggests the pair to be traded lower in short-term, towards the lower level of the formation.
Resistance level: 1.1600, 1.1665
Support level: 1.1500, 1.1450
USDJPY
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY extended its losses following prior closure below the strong support level at 108.85. MACD histogram which illustrate persistent downward signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after breaking the support level near 108.30.
Resistance level: 108.85, 109.40
Support level: 108.30, 107.50
CrudeOIL
CrudeOIL, H1: Crude oil price remains traded within a sideways channel following prior retracement from the top level. Stochastic Oscillator which illustrate retrace signal from the overbought regions suggests the commodity price to be traded lower in short-term after closing below the 20-MA line (red). Otherwise, long-term trend direction could only be determined following a successful breakout from either side of the channel.
Resistance level: 67.40, 68.30
Support level: 65.75, 64.05
GOLD
GOLD_, H1: Gold price remains traded within a narrowing triangle while currently testing at the top level. Due to the lack of clarity from MACD histogram and price action, it is suggested to enter the market after a successful breakout has occur from either side of the triangle.
Resistance level: 1308.00, 1314.95
Support level: 1300.00, 1296.00