30 May 2019 Morning Session Analysis
Dollar extended gains, trade war weighs on oil price.
Dollar index which gauge its value against a basket of six major currencies surged back to its 1-week high yesterday before retracing 0.04% to 97.95 following major sell-offs in the equity market as US treasury yield curve shows signs of inversion, indicating economy recession. Recent trade war tensions, Brexit uncertainties and global recession had caused investors to place their investment in stronger dollar and safe-haven assets, boosting dollar’s appeal as investors await further signals in the market. Besides that, increasing tensions between US-Sino trade war continue to weigh on oil prices while heightening expectations of lower oil demand in the market. The major fall in crude oil price also further pressured the Loonie, causing the pair of USD/CAD to hit its January high. Besides that, Bank of Canada kept its interest rate unchanged yesterday, while hinting that overall economy in the Canada is in line with the bank’s expectation. However, they will still focus on upcoming data to decide on future rate changes. The pair of USD/CAD inched lower by 0.04% to 1.3512 as of writing.
As for commodities market, crude oil price continues to falls by 0.22% to $58.89 per barrel after rebounding from its low-levels amid upbeat inventory data. According to the American Petroleum Institute, last week crude inventories fell unexpectedly by 5.27M barrel. Investors will now focus on EIA oil inventory report to further gauge oil’s movement. Besides, gold price quoted down by 0.08% to $1278.80 a troy ounce amid stronger dollar.
Today’s Holiday Market Close
Time Market Event
All Day CHF Ascension Day
Today’s Highlight Events
Time Market Event
N/A
Today’s Highlight Economic Data
| Time | Market & Data | Previous | Forecast | Actual |
| 20:30 | USD – GDP (QoQ) (Q1) | 3.2% | 3.1% | – |
| 20:30 | USD – Initial Jobless Claims | 211K | 216K | – |
| 22:00 | USD – Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) | 3.8% | 0.9% | – |
| 23:00 | CrudeOIL – Crude Oil Inventories | 4.740M | -0.857M | – |
Technical Analysis
DOLLAR_INDX, H4: Dollar index was traded higher while currently testing the resistance level at 98.00. MACD which illustrate bullish bias momentum suggests the index to extend its gains after closing above 98.00.
Resistance level: 98.00, 98.25
Support level: 97.60, 97.40
GBPUSD, H4: GBPUSD was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 1.2610. MACD which illustrate bearish signal suggests the pair to extend its losses after successfully breakout below the support level at 1.2610.
Resistance level: 1.2695, 1.2745
Support level: 1.2610, 1.2555
EURUSD, H4: EURUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.1125. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.1170.
Resistance level: 1.1170, 1.1210
Support level: 1.1125, 1.1085
USDJPY, H4: USDJPY was traded lower while currently testing the support level at 109.55. MACD which illustrate diminishing bullish momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses after closing below the support of 109.55.
Resistance level: 109.90, 110.20
Support level: 109.55, 109.20
AUDUSD, H4: AUDUSD was traded flat in the sideway channel. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the top level of channel at 0.6935.
Resistance level: 0.6935, 0.6960
Support level: 0.6910, 0.6865
NZDUSD, H4: NZDUSD was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 0.6505. MACD which illustrate diminishing bearish momentum suggests the pair to extend its rebound toward the resistance level at 0.6550.
Resistance level: 0.6550, 0.6585
Support level: 0.6505, 0.6470
USDCAD, H4: USDCAD was traded lower following prior retracement from the resistance of 1.3535. MACD which illustrate diminishing upward momentum suggests the pair to extend its losses toward the support level at 1.3505.
Resistance level: 1.3535, 1.3565
Support level: 1.3505, 1.3475
USDCHF, H4: USDCHF was traded higher following prior rebound from the support level at 1.0050. MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests the pair to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 1.0100.
Resistance level: 1.0100, 1.0130
Support level: 1.0050, 1.0005
CrudeOIL, H4: Crude oil price was traded higher following prior breakout above the 20 moving average line (Red). MACD which illustrate bullish signal suggests its prices to extend its gains toward the resistance level at 59.70.
Resistance level: 59.70, 60.50
Support level: 58.25, 57.05
GOLD_, H4: Gold price was traded lower following prior retracement from the higher level. MACD which illustrate bearish bias momentum suggests its prices to extend its losses toward the support level at 1278.45.
Resistance level: 1288.50, 1294.05
Support level: 1278.45, 1272.45